MLB Must Bet Props: Strictly Team Totals | August 6, 2024
After an exciting Monday night, it’s time to focus on tonight’s slate. I’ve been eyeing a couple of first-five team totals, which are my specialty.
Here are two plays that should satisfy those cravings and lead to a successful evening.
Top MLB Prop Bets for Tuesday’s Slate
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Yesterday’s Card 5-2 (+9.3 Units) | Last Seven Days 20-30 (+3.3 Units) | Last 30 Days 84-97 (+36.3 Units)
Team Total Prop: Reds F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+124)
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The Stank:
After the Cincinnati Reds’ impressive double-digit scoring performance last night, they are well-positioned for another strong offensive showing. They face Marlins starter Max Meyer, who has been mediocre this season, with a 3.81 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Meyer ranks third worst in pitcher rating, according to Batters-Box.com’s default ratings. He has allowed over 2.5 runs in his last two starts.
In contrast, Cincinnati boasts the third highest average hitter matchup rating, featuring six elite-rated hitters and no hitters with a strikeout rate above the league average. Over their last three games, they have averaged more than 5.0 runs. Additionally, the Marlins concede the most runs in the first five innings, with a higher average at home (3.23 runs per game) compared to on the road.
Given the Reds’ recent performance and the Marlins’ pitching struggles, I am confident in the Reds continuing their offensive success despite any potential letdown after last night’s game.
Team Total Prop: Nationals F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-166)
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The Stank:
I know what you’re thinking: “The Nats?!”
Yes, the Nationals.
They’re in a strong position tonight against Giants starter Hayden Birdsong, who has the second highest average hitter matchup hard contact rate. While Birdsong has been decent to start his career, he’s up against four elite hitters, making for a potentially tough outing.
Birdsong has allowed teams to surpass 1.5 runs in five of his six starts this season. He has a 2.97 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.
smile aaaaaand wave, boys@CJAbrams01 + @jwood_29 pic.twitter.com/Bo36ndwUhB
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) August 5, 2024
Though Washington isn’t known for its high first-five inning scoring, they rank 16th in first-five scoring and average 2.40 runs in this season, which is notable given their 11 games under .500.
If their team total were set at 2.5, I might hesitate, but at 1.5, it’s a solid number and worth the price. Here’s hoping the Nationals’ bats come alive early tonight.
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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