AFC South 2024 Divisional Predictions, Odds, & Best Bets: Stroud-led Texans Lead the Race
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August is here, which means we’re only about a month away from the 2024 NFL season. Betting News has been previewing each of the league’s eight divisions ahead of the new campaign, and you can check some of them out here:
- 2024 AFC North Preview
- 2024 AFC West Preview
- 2024 NFC East Preview
- 2024 NFC North Preview
- 2024 NFC West Preview
With that being said, it’s time to take a look at the AFC South, which is composed of the Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Tennessee Titans. Although it isn’t necessarily the best division on an annual basis, the AFCS is known for its competitive battles throughout the years.
So, who’s winning the 2024 AFC South title? Let’s discuss that!
NFL Futures Betting: AFC South Division Odds 2024
AFC South 2024 odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of 12:15 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Aug. 6.
- Houston Texans (-115)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+300)
- Indianapolis Colts (+350)
- Tennessee Titans (+900)
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Last 10 AFC South Division Winners
- 2023: Houston Texans (10-7)
- 2022: Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)
- 2021: Tennessee Titans (12-5)
- 2020: Tennessee Titans (11-5)
- 2019: Houston Texans (10-6)
- 2018: Houston Texans (11-5)
- 2017: Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)
- 2016: Houston Texans (9-7)
- 2015: Houston Texans (9-7)
- 2014: Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
NFL Betting: AFC South 2024 Preview
Houston Texans (-115)
After winning the AFC South title last year — their fifth time doing so in the last five seasons — the Houston Texans are favored to repeat as division champions next season.
It shouldn’t be shocking to see the Texans as the favorites given that they’re one of the fastest-rising teams in the NFL. They caught a lot of people off guard last season by making it to the Division Round of the playoffs and a lot of that had to do with C.J. Stroud’s play under center.
The 2023 second-overall selection more than lived up to the hype as a rookie, pacing the NFL with 273.9 passing yards per game while also tallying 23 touchdowns (to 5 interceptions) and a 100.8 passer rating. Not only was he named the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year, but he also finished eighth in Most Valuable Player voting.
The Texans’ attack only looks scarier now that All-Pro WR Stefon Diggs — who has six straight 1,000-yard seasons — is joining the fold. With the likes of Diggs, Tank Dell, Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz, Joe Mixon, and Robert Woods at Stroud’s disposal, who’s going to stop Houston?
Considering how their defense is among the top third of the league, it’s easy to see why the Texans are one of the biggest threats in their division. If everyone plays up to their potential, I wouldn’t be surprised if they wind up being in the Super Bowl mix.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+300)
It’s been hard to predict what you’ll see from the Jacksonville Jaguars in recent years. After all, this is a franchise that recorded 10 losing seasons between 2011 and 2021.
But after the failed Urban Meyer debacle, things have been looking up with Doug Pederson at the helm. The Jaguars returned to the playoffs in Pederson’s debut season (2022) thanks to a 9-8 record. They duplicated that record last season, however, it wasn’t good enough to make a consecutive postseason appearance.
Jacksonville has a decent roster, but any potential success hinges on QB Trevor Lawrence’s development. After playing on an MVP level in 2022, Lawrence came back to earth last season, finishing with 4,016 passing yards, 21 TDs, and 14 INTs in 16 starts. He went from having the 10th-best passer rate in Year 2 (95.2) to being ranked No. 23 in 2023 (88.5).
Even if the defense plays lights out, the Jaguars will face an uphill battle if Lawrence doesn’t start looking like a former first-overall pick. Only time will tell if his massive $275 million contract extension weighs him down.
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Indianapolis Colts (+350)
There was a time in history when the Indianapolis Colts dominated the AFC South. With Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck leading the charge, the Colts won a record nine AFCS titles between 2003 and 2014.
Unfortunately, that same level of dominance hasn’t been there in recent years. The Colts haven’t won the division since the aforementioned 2014 campaign, however, they’ve come close with five second-place finishes in the last nine years. What’s impressive is that they finished one game behind the Texans last season despite starting QB Anthony Richardson missing the majority of his rookie year.
Richardson is now fully healthy and looks to pick up from where he left off. He’s privileged to have a strong offensive line in front of him and the Colts have also done well at surrounding him with good weapons. In addition to the returning cast — Michael Pittman Jr., Jonathan Taylor, Josh Downs, etc. — Indianapolis also used a 2024 second-round pick on WR Adonai Mitchell, who had 845 yards and 11 TDs with the Texas Longhorns in 2023.
The Colts also lucked out in April when they used the No. 15 pick on DE Laiatu Latu, who’s now BetOnline’s +300 favorite to be named the 2024 Defensive Rookie of the Year. If Latu lives up to the hype, Indianapolis could thrive on the seventh-easiest schedule (per Sharp Football Analysis).
Tennessee Titans (+900)
The Tennessee Titans are, by far, the biggest long shots to win the AFC South in 2024, coming in at a distant +900 odds.
After winning back-to-back division crowns in 2020 and 2021, the Titans have posted consecutive losing seasons. The six victories they finished with last season marked their worst win total since they notched three in 2015, showing just how far Tennessee has fallen from grace.
The Titans were also dealt one of the biggest blows of the NFL offseason when star running back Derrick Henry left in free agency to join the Baltimore Ravens. Although Tennessee managed to “replace” him with Tony Pollard, he likely won’t have the same impact as Henry given that the latter has been the league’s top rusher in the last decade.
The jury is also out on QB Will Levis, who didn’t look that special in his rookie year. With Henry gone and WR DeAndre Hopkins’ knee banged up, it’ll be interesting to see whether Levis sinks or swims come September. Yes, the Titans brought in WR Calvin Ridley, but his presence alone might not be enough.
Unless the defense makes up for the offense’s probable shortcoming, it’s best to fade the Titans next season.
AFC South 2024 Prediction: Houston Texans (-115)
After winning the division in 2023, I’m expecting a Texans repeat this season. The Texans have only gotten better since we last saw them and their roster is good enough to go against any contender in the NFL. If Stroud’s development continues at its current pace, these odds will only become shorter each week.
Having said that, feel free to sprinkle something on the Colts, too. They only finished with one fewer win than the Texans last season, and their easy schedule could make them a dark horse pick.
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