NFL Fantasy Football 2024 Early Round Value Picks: Quaterbacks
Last week we broke down the wide receiver position for fantasy football drafts, and value picks from rounds 2 – 12. If you haven’t read each part of that series then what are you doing? Now it’s time to turn to a position that is not scare, but harder to find true game changers, in the quaterback position. There’s a strategy where waiting to draft a quaterback much later in the draft is a viable option, but let’s still find depth throughout the draft. Today we will select one receiver from rounds 2-4 and discuss their NFL fantasy value.
This is an ongoing series to highlight players who REEK of value in NFL fantasy drafts. We aren’t talking about McCaffrey with the 1st overall pick, but instead we are going to be finding gems. Each article will feature a position within a range of draft rounds (we will always skip the 1st round). We will assume that these picks are for 12-team leagues with .5 PPR and will not be discussing in terms of Superflex. On top of that I’ll highlight a futures bet that corresponds with each player, all of whose odds can be found on BETONLINE.
So without further ado, let’s kick it off with NFL fantasy football 2024 late round value picks: the wide receivers. It’s mock draft season baby!!!
1. Quaterback Value Rounds 2-4: Josh Allen
Can Josh Allen be the top fantasy QB once again?
I’m usually one to hold off until I have both of my receivers and running backs before drafting a quaterback. But Josh Allen is always tempting. Especially for zero running back strategies in NFL fantasy.
The Buffalo Bills gunslinder has been the top quaterback in NFL fantasy in three of the last four seasons and the only time has not been a top two quterback was his rookie and sophomore seasons. Allen’s combination of passing and rushing prowess is unparalleled. He consistently racks up fantasy points through both avenues. Even in suboptimal game scripts, Allen can produce fantasy points with his rushing ability. His ceiling as a passer is also incredibly high.
The largest concern for Allen this season is the unknowns around his weapons. Stefon Diggs is now in Houston and Gabe Davis has moved on to Jacksonville. That leave sophomore tight end Dalton Kincaid as potentially the top option along with veteran Curtis Samuel, rookie Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir as his wide receivers. Still, this is a player who had 29 passing and 15 rushing touchdowns last season and can dominate games no matter who is catching the ball.
If I am drafting a quaterback in the first two rounds Josh Allen is the only one I would consider. While Mahomes is an absolute force on the field, he doesn’t have the same upside as Josh Allen in a fantasy standpoint. Allen is my top quaterback in NFL fantasy for good reason and the only quaterback I am targeting before round 4.
Josh Allen o500.5 rushing yard for -108 on BetOnline:
This line is too damn low. Allen has hit this in all but one season in his career. Last year he had 524 rushing yards, but topped 760 the two prior seasons. With less reliable weapons on the field Allen may need to scramble more as well. I couldn’t believe my eyes when I found this betting line and it is one of my favorite NFL future bets I’ve found this offseason.
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2. NFL Fantasy Rounds 2-4 Quaterback: Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson feels like great value in round 4
There are two quaterbacks I love that can be had in round four of NFL fantasy drafts. Lamar Jackson is someone who I will be targeting if I have both of my receivers locked up in the first three rounds. Just like Allen, Lamar brings a unique blend of rushing upside that isn’t often found in the position. He was the 4th ranked QB last season and is coming off his second MVP award.
The one knock about Lamar has been his health. In both the 2022 and 2021 seasons he only played 12 games. But due to these injury concerns and inconsistent passing, Jackson’s ADP might be lower than his true talent suggests. This presents an opportunity to draft him at a value in the 4th round. He was the top QB in fantasy in the 2019 season and is coming off his best passing season.
Last year Jackson had over 3,600 passing yards, a career best. It is an illustration that he becoming more of a dual threat and that the coaching staff are encouraging him to air it out more. Jackson finished first among qualifying signal-callers in fantasy points per dropback (0.68) en route, which is another sign that we may be just seeing the beginning of Jackson as a true dual threat. He still managed to put up over 800 rushing yards on top of this, making him one of my favorite NFL fantasy targets.
Lamar Jackson o3,275.5 passing yards for -112 on BetOnline:
Jackson is becoming more of a threat in the passing game and this line being over 400 yards less than his passing yard total from last season shows tremendous value. The Ravens did bring in Derick Henry to support the running game. But Henry is one of this (literal) biggest rushing threat in the league. The hulking running back will provide Lamar with more options and keep defenses honest. I love Lamar to go over his passing yards this season.
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3. Value Quaterbacks NFL Fantasy Rounds 2-4: Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts is another dual threat QB with loads of fantasy value
After Jalen Hurts in the 4th round there are very few quaterbacks I am willing to take until deeper into the draft. We will explore those options in our next article but for now let’s examine Hurts. The Philadelphia quaterback exploded onto the NFL and fantasy landscape three seasons ago after a slow rookie season. Just like Allen and Jackson he is a dual threat rushing QB who has put up over 600 rushing yards in the last three seasons.
Hurts is a bit more consistent than Lamar with his throwing game, having three 3,000+ passing yard seasons in a row. And last season he had a career best of 15 passing touchdowns and 15 rushing touchdowns. All reports out of camp is that he looks “sharp’ in the new offensive scheme, and should be right on track to have another top 5 NFL fantasy season, if not top 3.
Now there are some concerns for Hurt’s upside. The Eagles have added elite running back Saquon Barkely to the mix, which could cut into Hurt’s rushing upside and rushing touchdowns. They also lost hall-of-famer center Kelce which will be a major blow to the offensive line. Still through all of this Hurts is a quaterback with major upside that is worthy of his 4th round ADP in NFL fantasy.
Jalen Hurts o9.5 rushing touchdowns for -126 on BetOnline:
Hurts has had 15, 13 and 10 rushing touchdowns in his last three seasons. The addition of Barkley may drop Hurt’s total upside in touchdowns, but even if Barkely snatched 5 of Hurts’ last season rushing TD’s he would have still had 10 total rushing touchdowns. I don’t expect Hurts to have 15 again, but the presence of Barkely should also open up lanes for Hurts to sneak into the end zone. I still think Hurt’s rushing TD upside is higher than 10, making this a best bet.
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Interested in More Content?
More NFL Content on Betting News:
- NFL Fantasy Football 2024 Top 3 Value Picks: Wide Receivers
- NFL Fantasy Football 2024 Mid Round Value Picks: Wide Receivers
- NFL Fantasy Football 2024 Late Round Value Picks: Wide Receivers
- NFL Fantasy Football 2024 Top 3 Value Picks: Running Backs
- NFL Fantasy Football 2024 Rounds 5-8 Value Picks: Running Backs
- NFL Fantasy Football 2024 Late Round Running Backs
- 2024 NFL Power Rankings & Super Bowl Odds
- 2024 NFL Schedule: The Best and Worst of the Schedule
- NFL Expert Betting Guide
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