Yankees vs Phillies MLB Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (7/31)

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The New York Yankees (64-45) look to sweep the Philadelphia Phillies (65-42) when the teams collide for their series finale at 12:35 p.m. ET on Wednesday, July 31.

Can the hosts avoid a sweep? Or will the visitors continue with their winning ways?

Let’s answer those questions and discuss some of today’s best MLB bets as we dive into my Yankees vs. Phillies predictions and picks.

2024 MLB Betting Picks Record: 63-75-1 (45.7%)

MLB Betting Today: Yankees vs Phillies (7/31)

Yankees vs Phillies Game Information

Matchup: New York Yankees (64-45, 37-22 Away) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (65-42, 38-20 Home)
Venue & Location: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, PA)
Date: Wednesday, July 31, 2024
Game Time: 12:35 p.m. ET
How to Watch Yankees vs. Phillies: MLB.TV, Fubo, MLB Network

Yankees vs Phillies MLB Probable Pitchers

Yankees: Nestor Cortes (22 starts — 4-9, 4.13 ERA)
Phillies: Cristopher Sanchez (20 starts — 7-6, 3.05 ERA)

Phillies vs Yankees MLB Odds & Spread

Phillies vs. Yankees MLB odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of Wednesday, July 31 at 9:59 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Yankees vs Phillies Run Line

New York Yankees +1.5 (-184)
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+164)

Phillies vs Yankees Over/Under

Over 9.5 Runs (-103)
Under 9.5 Runs (-117)

Yankees vs Phillies Moneyline

New York Yankees (+106)
Philadelphia Phillies (-116)

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Yankees vs Phillies MLB Betting Trends

The Yankees are 6-1 straight up in their last seven games vs. Philadelphia.
Philadelphia is 1-4 straight up in its last five home games.
The total hit the Over in each of the Yankees’ last six games.
The total hit the Over in six of Philadelphia’s last seven games vs. the AL East.
The total hit the Over in five of the last seven Yankees-Phillies matchups.

Yankees vs Phillies Predictions & MLB Picks Today (7/31)

As mentioned earlier, the Yankees are gunning for a sweep this afternoon. After picking up a massive 14-4 victory in the series opener, New York put Philadelphia in a two-game hole with a hard-fought 7-6 extra-innings win less than 24 hours ago.

The Phillies took a commanding 4-1 lead into the sixth inning, but it was all the Yankees after that as they led in runs 6-2 for the remainder of the game. Needing two extra frames to decide the contest, New York catcher Austin Wells scored the game-winning run in the 12th frame on a sacrificed double play from Gleyber Torres as right-handed reliever Michael Tonkin registered his third win of the 2024 season.

With the victory, the Yankees are now 6-1 SU in their last seven games against the Phillies. New York’s offense was the main reason behind the majority of those victories as it put up a whopping 6.6 runs per game while outscoring Philadelphia by an average of 2.9. The back-to-back wins also ended the Yankees’ five-game losing streak against the NL East.

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The Yankees have been piling up the wins against the Phillies in recent years.

Today’s potential sweep is in the hands of Yankees RHP Nestor Cortes. The former MLB All-Star hurler pitched well in May and June, however, his play has since regressed. In his last five starts, Cortes has surrendered 19 earned runs and six homers on 34 hits across 23 2/3 innings. Not only does he own a 7.23 ERA during that stretch, but he also owns a 0-3 record while allowing opponents to slash .340/.389/.660.

Meanwhile, it remains to be seen whether the Phillies will get the good or bad version of Cristopher Sanchez on the mound.

On one hand, Sanchez is just 1-3 with a less-than-stellar 5.82 ERA in his last four starts. On the other hand, he’s been nearly unbeatable at Citizens Bank Park where he’s 6-2 with a 1.75 ERA and 0.972 WHIP across 11 starts this season.

Phillies LHP Cristopher Sanchez has been wheeling and dealing at Citizens Bank Park this season.

Even though the Yankees own the series lead, let’s roll with the Phillies this afternoon. Rob Thomson’s club is due for a win and I see that happening today given Cortes’ recent struggles. As long as Sanchez’s strong play at home continues, the Phillies are good enough to beat anyone in the City of Brotherly Love.

Having said that, the Over on the 9.5-run total is calling my name. After all, the Over is 6-0 in New York’s last six games (15.2 runs per game) and 6-1 in Philadelphia’s seven previous matchups against an AL East club (12.0 runs per game).

The projected total has also been surpassed in five of the last seven Yankees-Phillies tilts, which averaged 10.3 runs per meeting. With both starting pitchers playing at an inconsistent rate lately, there’s a decent chance we see some fireworks at Citizens Bank Park.

Yankees vs. Phillies MLB Prediction: PHI wins

Best Yankees vs. Phillies Bet: o9.5 Total Runs (-103)

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Best Yankees vs Phillies MLB Player Prop (7/31)

After looking through the various available Yankees vs. Phillies player props, I’m siding with the Over on Aaron Judges’ 1.5 total bases (-130).

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Judge has been an on-base machine throughout the 2024 campaign and his latest stretch solidifies that fact. The former AL MVP owns a .623 OBP in his last 14 games (46 at-bats) after racking up 20 hits, seven home runs, and a pair of doubles during that stretch. He amassed a whopping 43 total bases in those contests — equating to 3.1 TBs per appearance — while finishing with the Over on this prop nine times, which includes each of this series’ first two games.

If you aren’t convinced yet, the Over is also 6-2 in his last eight road games (4.3 TBs). Keeping that in mind, I’m confident in another stellar showing from the Linden, CA native.

Yankees vs Phillies MLB Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (7/31)

2024 MLB Betting Picks Record: 63-75-1 (45.7%)