Mets vs Pirates MLB Predictions, Odds, Pitchers & Best Bets (7/5)

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Friday’s MLB schedule is packed with exciting matchups, including the start of a three-game series between the New York Mets (42-43) and Pittsburgh Pirates (41-45) at 6:40 p.m. ET.

The Mets hope to avoid a third consecutive loss after falling 1-0 to the Washington Nationals less than 24 hours ago. Meanwhile, the Pirates suffered a 3-2 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals yesterday as their record continues to dip further below .500.

Which of these clubs will bounce back with a win tonight?

Let’s answer that question by diving into my Mets vs. Pirates predictions and best MLB bets for the day.

2024 MLB Betting Picks Record: 42-52-1 (44.7%)

MLB Betting Today: Mets vs Pirates (7/5)

Mets vs Pirates Game Information

Matchup: New York Mets (42-43, 21-18 Away) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (41-45, 20-22 Home)
Venue & Location: PNC Park (Pittsburgh, PA)
Date: Friday, July 5, 2024
Game Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
How to Watch Mets vs. Pirates: MLB.TV, Fubo, SNY

Mets vs Pirates MLB Probable Pitchers

Mets: Luis Severino (16 starts — 5-2, 3.42 ERA)
Pirates: Paul Skenes (9 starts — 4-0, 2.06 ERA)

Pirates vs Mets MLB Odds & Spread

Pirates vs. Mets MLB odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of Friday, July 5 at 9:20 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Mets vs Pirates Run Line

New York Mets +1.5 (-190)
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (+165)

Pirates vs Mets Over/Under

Over 7.5 Runs (-115)
Under 7.5 Runs (-105)

Mets vs Pirates Moneyline

New York Mets (+116)
Pittsburgh Pirates (-126)

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Mets vs Pirates MLB Betting Trends

The Mets are 10-4 straight up in their last 14 road games.
Pittsburgh is 5-2 straight up in its last seven games as the favorite.
The total hit the Under in seven of the Mets’ last 10 games vs. the NL Central.
The total hit the Under in six of Pittsburgh’s last nine home games.
The total hit the Over in four of the last five Mets-Pirates matchups.

Mets vs Pirates Predictions & MLB Picks Today (7/5)

A win tonight is crucial for both sides if they hope to remain in the National League playoff race. The Mets head into this evening’s game 2.5 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals for the final NL wild-card spot while the Pirates sit four games behind the latter.

This matchup isn’t the first of the season between these NL teams. They previously collided for a three-game series at Citi Field back in April as the Mets swept the Pirates while outscoring them 18-5 on aggregate in the process. With the sweep, New York improved to 5-1 SU in its last six meetings with Pittsburgh.

Nevertheless, the Mets have come back down to earth after being one of the MLB’s hottest clubs in June. They’ve dropped four of their last six games and were held to just a single hit in last night’s loss to the Nationals.

At the same time, the Pirates have played to mixed results, also losing four of their last six games. Additionally, they tend to struggle against NL East clubs, going 3-6 SU in their last nine meetings with the division.

Will the Pirates’ recent struggles against the Mets and NL East come back to bite them?

One thing that the Pirates do have going for them is pitching phenom Paul Skenes. The former 2023 No. 1 overall pick has lived up to the hype thus far, going 4-0 with a 2.06 ERA while averaging 12.0 strikeouts per nine innings in his first nine starts.

If that isn’t impressive enough, Skenes has only allowed one or zero runs in each of his last four appearances.

The Mets plan to counter the ex-top prospect with veteran righty Luis Severino. The former two-time MLB All-Star has been solid for the most part this season and even beat the Pirates three months ago, striking out four batters with one earned run allowed in a 9-1 victory on April 17.

Having said that, Severino did look shaky in his latest appearance as he gave up four earned runs on eight hits to the Houston Astros just on Sunday.

Can Pirates RHP Paul Skenes outduel Mets RHP Luis Severino?

With Skenes on the mound, it’s a no-brainer to back the Pirates to win. Pittsburgh performs well with the 21-year-old ace on the mound, which is bad news for a Mets team that was nearly no-hit by the Nationals yesterday. April’s sweep will only further motivate the Pirates to pick up the win tonight.

As for the best bet, let’s go with under four runs for the first five innings. Skenes and Severino are both tremendous talents who are playing at a high level, so I don’t expect to see much offense until one (or both) of them is removed from the matchup.

Mets vs. Pirates MLB Prediction: PIT wins

Best Mets vs. Pirates Bet: First 5 Innings — u4 Total Runs (-115)

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Best Mets vs Pirates MLB Player Prop (7/5)

With the ability to make any batter look foolish, it’s a no-brainer to back Paul Skenes o7.5 total strikeouts (-130) as the best Mets vs. Pirates player prop.

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Skenes is a machine when it comes to strikeout totals. The ex-LSU product is averaging a whopping 7.9 strikeouts across his last eight starts, finishing with the Over on this prop six times. He’s amassed at least eight Ks in two of his last three starts at PNC Park, where he’s averaging 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings.

Considering how the Mets have struck out an average of 11.0 times across their last four games, there’s a good chance that Skenes will rack up the Ks again.

Mets vs Pirates MLB Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (7/5)

2024 MLB Betting Picks Record: 42-52-1 (44.7%)