Five NFL offseason storylines that are overblown; five that deserve more attention

As we approach the end of June and await the beginning of training camps, us NFL enthusiasts are left to sift through the reports from OTAs and minicamps that were held earlier this month. We hope to discover engaging, intriguing, and beneficial tidbits of information that will tide us over until July.

Some stories that were published warrant more focus. Conversely, others may have received more exposure than necessary.

It’s the season of hype, and the majority of the 32 teams are experiencing a sense of rejuvenation and revival. However, not everything is as pleasant as puppy dogs and ice cream. A few club officials might be silently stressed about their defense, their quarterbacks, contract issues, a lack of leadership and so forth.

Look around, and you can find examples on both sides, from the saccharine to sacrilege. I’m here to sort through the offseason news cycle and filter out what really matters and what is overblown. After all, stuff people are worried about now will quietly disappear before you know it, while narratives that feel like blow-off stories have the potential to blow up in short order.

Here are ten stories, five from each perspective of the coin:

OVERBLOWN STORYLINES

1) Falcons QB situation

I’ve come full circle on this one. I get why so many people didn’t like the selection of Michael Penix Jr. eighth overall originally, and I don’t blame them for feeling that way. Everything to that point of the offseason indicated Atlanta was making a push for now, and the Penix move appeared to undercut that in an odd way.

If you want to argue that it didn’t help Kirk Cousins get better, I hear you. But I’d push back on the idea that it didn’t make the team better. Falcons fans might be programmed a certain way, having seen Matt Ryan start virtually every game for a decade and a half, and Cousins had been pretty darned durable prior to last year’s Achilles injury, but having two quarterbacks capable of starting is seldom a bad thing.

I’m not concerned about Cousins’ mental state. He’s experienced and wealthy enough to not be unsettled by this. If Cousins does get injured, the Falcons can still be hopeful with their backup plan, especially since Penix, despite being a rookie, has significant college experience with six years and 45 games under his belt.

The NFC South is certainly up for grabs and the Falcons have a good schedule. Their decision to safeguard their most valuable asset with insurance might not have been popular, but it’s difficult to dispute that it could prove very useful.

2) Caleb Williams as an immediate success

I’m not exactly sure where I’d rate the expectations for Caleb Williams in Year 1, but they feel high to me. Perhaps not Andrew Luck-level rookie hype here, but I believe expectations are higher for Williams in Year 1 than they were for Trevor Lawrence a few years ago.

Those expectations should be muted more than they seem to be right now. The past seven quarterbacks drafted No. 1 overall, dating back to Jameis Winston in 2015, have produced an average Year 1 season of roughly 14 starts, 16 touchdown passes, 11 interceptions and about 3,100 pass yards. Pretty tame numbers collectively, even with a few positive outliers in the group.

Granted, the Bears offer Williams some things that few of those rookie QBs had: an exciting WR corps, the makings of a solid offensive line and other good foundational pieces on offense, not to mention an improved roster on defense and special teams. Williams is an exceptional talent, the likes of which the Bears might never have had at the position. The schedule also is quite manageable.

Hence the outsized hope.

Bears fans might want and expect immediate fireworks, but I’m here to say that the show might start a bit slowly. Things might not be as frustrating as they were for Zach Wilson in 2021, but 2023 Jordan Love might be a decent comp. Love was a guy who waited his turn for three full years with the Packers — and yet, through nine games last season, Love looked ordinary, not really cranking it up several notches until Green Bay’s playoff push.

It’s conceivable to me that Williams might have a rookie season start reminiscent of Love, where he slowly finds his footing before his performance really kicks off. However, I have no doubts about his long-term potential. Still, I think the expectation for him to excel instantly is based on an unrealistic outlook.

3) Bills’ offseason unloading of vets

The Bills have had a rough offseason, making it easy for others to criticize them. Their situation has worsened due to the need to cut significant portions of their salary, arguably leading to a decline in four areas. It’s challenging to assert that the Bills are now stronger in terms of receivers, offensive line, defensive line or secondary compared to their condition a year ago.

Khalil Shakir is the only receiver on the roster who has caught a pass from Josh Allen after the departures of Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Deonte Harty and Trent Sherfield. But Allen won’t be looking around like confused Travolta. The tight ends project to carry a bigger share of the load. The upside of Shakir and Keon Coleman can’t be overlooked. And James Cook and Curtis Samuel figure to combine for more than 100 catches. If even one of the Mack Hollins/Chase Claypool/Marquez Valdes-Scantling trio does anything, Buffalo will be more than fine, I suspect.

The offensive and defensive lines both have a chance to be good units. I am worried about the depth in both spots, but the starting groups still have some strength to them. Good health would go a long way toward providing key stability.

If there’s a spot I am most worried about, it’s probably that secondary. Losing four major contributors (corners Dane Jackson and Tre’Davious White and safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer) is no joke. But even so, I won’t write off this group, which features a few solid returners, the untapped upside of 2022 first-rounder Kaiir Elam and a potential rookie starter in second-round sleeper Cole Bishop.

For me, the story seems exaggerated due to the involvement of Allen. He is clearly the main attraction, and people may be overlooking the potential benefit of his subtraction. The necessity to consistently engage Diggs and to deal with the frustratingly unpredictable Davis is no longer present.

I’m tentatively investing in Bills stock as it declines. There may be some losses incurred, but I’m beginning to believe that this team could regain their top position quicker than many anticipate.

4) Chargers WR panic

When the Chargers cast off Mike Williams and Keenan Allen this offseason, it led to choruses of concern about Jim Harbaugh being left with the worst wide receiver room in the NFL in 2024. I don’t think those worries are accurate, honestly, and with the kind of team Harbaugh is building in Los Angeles, it made sense to reclaim some much-needed salary flexibility and reshape the team in a different way.

With Justin Herbert at QB, the Chargers won’t suddenly stop throwing the ball. There might be fewer attempts per game, but in a Harbaugh offense, you can expect an emphasis on efficiency in the passing attack.

From 2011 to 2014, Harbaugh was at the helm of the 49ers, during which they never ranked above 29th in the NFL for pass attempts and never fell below ninth in rushing attempts. This peculiar ranking can be partly explained by the unconventional system San Francisco adopted with QBs Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick. Under Harbaugh’s leadership, the Niners also managed to record the least number of INTs in three of those four seasons and twice found themselves amongst the top 10 for yards per pass attempt.

Harbaugh’s imprint, even with limited cap room, was clear. He beefed up the offensive line and added tight ends and backs. The Chargers will use six-plus offensive linemen and unbalanced formations. They’ll run the ball sometimes on third-and-6. This coach won’t change his stripes completely.

But they will use their receivers, and it’s maybe a better group than some realize. They’ve added seven wideouts since the draft, and I think three — Ladd McConkey, DJ Chark and Brenden Rice — will earn roles on this team. They also have two potential alphas (at least, alphas for this team) in Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston on board. Palmer could lead this group in targets (like he did in 2022 with 107), as could McConkey in a crazy scenario, but don’t forget what Johnston did to Harbaugh’s Wolverines in the Fiesta Bowl a few years ago (6-163-1 receiving).

Plus, now that L’Jarius Sneed out of the division, I don’t think the AFC West is exactly loaded with coverage studs. Trent McDuffie is great for the Chiefs, and Denver’s Patrick Surtain II is a top-shelf corner. But after that? The Chargers will have plenty of chances to win one-on-one matchups in divisional games, and their schedule on the whole is not that daunting. The WR panic feels overblown to me.

5) Texans as Super Bowl contenders

I love everything about the direction of this team and believe it’ll be better in some ways than the 2023 squad that earned a lot of new fans amid a breakout season. The Texans have the coach (DeMeco Ryans), the QB (C.J. Stroud) and the play-caller (Bobby Slowik) to run it back, and they added Danielle Hunter, Stefon Diggs and others to the mix. What’s not to like?

Well, first, the schedule. It’s tough. The AFC South looks stronger as a division, and other than the Week 6 game at New England, I don’t see a single contest against an opponent that you clearly can say is in a rebuild.

Furthermore, progress doesn’t always follow a straight line. While we may all believe that the Texans are on an upward trajectory, and they very well might be, it doesn’t necessarily mean they will have more victories.

The defense, even with Hunter displacing Jonathan Greenard, still has to make big strides to be a consistently strong unit. The offensive line is improved but hardly dominant. The Texans lost the one effective runner (Devin Singletary) they had last season, and offseason import Joe Mixon is suddenly creeping up on 2,000 NFL touches, a threshold where some backs start to decline.

I believe Stroud is extraordinary, contributing significantly to filling many gaps in the previous season. However, despite the emergence of a thrilling, youthful base, I believe another year of nurturing is necessary. The Texans will be in a stronger position to aim for the Super Bowl in 2025 than in the upcoming season.

DESERVE MORE ATTENTION

1) Is Tua the next $50 million QB?

It’s QB extension season, and any day now, the Dolphins could sign quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to a massive new contract that exceeds $50 million per season on average. But they haven’t yet, even after presumably ensuring some future financial flexibility by letting two prized free agents (Christian Wilkins and Robert Hunt) walk this offseason. And Trevor Lawrence‘s recent five-year, $275 million extension with the Jaguars might make Tua’s deal harder to achieve.

With Lawrence receiving a full $55 million APY, the bar has likely been raised even higher for Miami when it comes to extending Tua. Typically, getting in early on these quarterback deals is better for teams. If the Dolphins were slow-playing the idea of a $50 million pact for their QB, I can’t imagine a 10-percent price bump has them suddenly more eager to pay up.

Maybe this is being exaggerated, and Miami will secure their player in the next few days or weeks. This would be beneficial for Tagovailoa, who, commendably, just had the best season of his four-year career so far. His leading of the NFL in passing yards (4,624) was a powerful indicator. However, I think it was more significant that he started all 18 games that Miami played, including the playoff defeat. Tua’s biggest concern before the last season was his durability.

But still, staying healthy enough to put together a long, prosperous career is another matter. Tagovailoa’s concussion history is probably most concerning in the big picture, but he’s had other ailments, too. At the same time, how do the Dolphins not sign him? There’s a sunk-cost element to the investment they’ve made in Tua (drafted fifth overall in 2020) that can’t be recouped, and there’s no obvious young QB in place to groom. Meanwhile, letting him play out the final year of his rookie contract, when he could further increase his value with yet another productive campaign, is risky poker.

2) The Raiders’ QB situation

I find certain elements of the Raiders intriguing and I’m confident that Antonio Pierce is steering the team towards success. The defense appears to be a top-12 unit, and they have strong enough receivers to contend with. However, this prompts the question: What is the long-term strategy for their quarterback position?

It could be as simple as kicking the can down the road until, say, about Nov. 1. That’s roughly the midpoint of the 2024 season, and by then, we should know whether second-year pro Aidan O’Connell or offseason addition Gardner Minshew is capable of leading the Raiders to contention.

Minshew kept the Colts afloat last season after Anthony Richardson was lost to injury, and O’Connell played some solid ball down the stretch as a rookie, taking over right after Josh McDaniels was fired. It’s easy to forget what a mess it was in Vegas before Pierce, O’Connell and others helped tidy things up. Having some decent WR and TE talent offers some hope, too.

But in the AFC West of all divisions, the Raiders probably need more than solid QB play. They’re going up against Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert — who are in their respective primes, no less — for roughly a quarter of the next several seasons. At some point, they’ll need their quarterbacks to win some games for them instead of depending on the defense to save them.

The Raiders might make it through this season and realize they need to invest in a veteran such as Tagovailoa or Dak Prescott, if either hits the market. The decision to pass on a quarterback in this year’s draft, when six QBs went in the first round, might force their hands; the 2025 QB draft class looks a lot cloudier than the ’24 group did at this same time last year.

Currently, the Raiders seem to have limited options for both the short and long term, which is a challenging position to be in, particularly with regard to the quarterback role in the NFL.

3) Daniel Jones and Drew Lock

Way back in the early days of free agency, Seahawks general manager John Schneider had some really interesting comments about losing QB Drew Lock to the Giants on a one-year deal, with Schneider suggesting that Lock was sold by the Giants on a chance to win the starting job. That story was tempered in the days that followed, with Lock himself clarifying that this is still Daniel Jones‘ team.

But is it really? Yes, GM Joe Schoen indicated after the draft that Jones remained atop the depth chart, and passing on a quarterback — in spite of Schoen traversing the country to scout all the QB prospects — certainly sent a message of support for the in-house QBs, at least for the meanwhile. Drafting Malik Nabers and bolstering the offensive line this offseason are moves that also figure to help whichever quarterback takes the starting job and runs with it.

I think Jones will get his shot, and he said he’s on schedule to be under center Week 1. Even so, I just can’t escape the idea that the Giants will take a look at Lock, who wasn’t great in Seattle last season but certainly had his share of moments in relief of Geno Smith. The Giants watched him pinch hit against them in Week 4 and later watched as Lock led a stirring Week 15 upset of the Eagles.

This situation could potentially mirror previous ones, where the Giants persevere through 2024, making a decision about the next steps at a later stage. However, irrespective of the path they choose, I am convinced that Lock has a more significant role in this scenario than many people are ready to acknowledge.

4) Anthony Richardson’s health

I was actually watching some Anthony Richardson tape recently when news came across that he was dealing with shoulder soreness during mandatory minicamp. Richardson blew it off, saying it was no biggie and that he felt fine.

Typical slow-news-cycle story, eh? It’s June, so there’s nothing to worry about, right? Sorry, but when I hear the words quarterback and shoulder soreness together, I don’t just brush it off, no matter what time of year it is, especially when said shoulder was recently surgically repaired. Consider me a little worried.

There’s no young QB in my mind who has a better chance to change the dynamic of his team and his offense than Richardson. The play I was watching against the Rams is a perfect encapsulation of his rare skill: a 38-yard tight-window dime that he delivered to Alec Pierce despite being unable to step into the throw, thanks to a clobbering by Aaron Donald.

We know about Richardson’s running ability. That was a ready-made skill the moment he entered the NFL last season. But it’s throws like the one that he made to Pierce that give us a window into Richardson’s vast potential. With Jonathan Taylor another year removed from his 2023 injury and holdout, and with the Colts adding more insulation offensively, Richardson could truly shift this franchise by taking off in 2024.

But that shoulder …

Athletes have setbacks all the time — heck, it wasn’t even clear this time a year ago if Brock Purdy, who went on to tally MVP votes for the Niners, was going to be ready for the start of the season. But shoulders are notoriously tricky, and injuries to them tend to linger; shoulders are also prone to reinjury. With Joe Flacco on board, there’s an intriguing level of security behind Richardson. But the last thing the Colts want this year is another incomplete season from the former No. 4 overall pick, clouding the picture of him and his team going forward.

5) The new kickoff rules

There has been some buzz from the diehards and special-teams junkies about the NFL’s new kickoff rules, but I am a bit shocked it hasn’t been louder to this point. No rule change this offseason was more stark and dramatic, and it absolutely will impact games this season.

The kickoff has seen a multitude of changes since 2011, primarily for player safety. The outcomes seemed to be beneficial. However, it looked like the kickoff return was on its way to becoming obsolete, much like the dodo bird.

It may not be immediately obvious to many, but there has been a significant decrease in kickoff returns in recent years. For example, in 2010, before the first significant rule change of this period, 2,033 kickoffs were returned, resulting in 23 touchdowns. However, the subsequent season saw a drop to 1,375 returns and nine touchdowns. Between 2018 and 2022, the average season featured approximately 1,000 kickoff returns and seven touchdowns. The most recent season was even more startling, with only 587 returns and four touchdowns.

The NFL came in this offseason and rescued the kickoff, and I am here for it. But the new rules are vastly different. In addition to lopping off about 25 yards of running on the returns (which coaches love, because it speeds up practices and boosts efficiency), the pursuit and blocking angles are different, and everything happens faster. We could see some wild breakdowns (or breakouts) in the preseason as the format is being field tested live.

Teams like the Texans, Ravens, and Colts who have demonstrated strength in special teams in recent years may enjoy an advantage this season. On the other hand, clubs like the Packers, Dolphins, and Rams, who have had difficulties with these units, could face losses in tight games unless they enhance their performance in this area.

Ultimately, these plays still involve offense and defense, essentially blocking and tackling. However, the hope is that the kickoff has regained its competitive nature, rather than continuing its transformation into a mere ceremonial play. I anticipate this discreet change will significantly impact this season’s games, potentially acting as a secret advantage for the more intelligent and resourceful teams.