Phillies vs Braves: MLB Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (8/21)

The Braves and the Phillies, both from the NL East, are squaring off today in Atlanta, with the Braves playing host. This match marks the second game of their three-match series, with the Braves emerging victorious against Philly in the previous match with a 3-1 score. Even though the Braves trail the Phillies by six games in the division, they are leading the regular season series 5-2. Before the season concludes, these teams have one more series to play. However, the Phillies’ lead in the NL East is noticeably shrinking.

Once, Philadelphia held a significant lead over the Braves in the NL East, but after two consecutive losses, their lead has slimmed down to just six games. While time is dwindling, the possibility of the Braves winning a series of games and securing the division still exists. Philadelphia is on a losing streak, having lost four straight road games, and are navigating a challenging road trip. They are set to head to Kansas City after this series.

Can the Phillies recover tonight in Atlanta? Or will the Braves secure their 4th consecutive victory?

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves: NL East Showdown

Game Information – Phillies vs Braves

• Location & Venue: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Wednesday, August 21st, 2024
• First Pitch: 7:20pm Eastern

Phillies vs Braves Starting Pitchers

• Aaron Nola of the Philadelphia Phillies has a record of 11-6, an ERA of 3.45, and a WHIP of 1.16.
• Max Fried of the Atlanta Braves has a record of 7-7, an ERA of 3.62, and a WHIP of 1.25.

Betting Odds

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Run Line

• Phillies +1.5 (-215)
• Braves -1.5 (+185)

Money Line

• Phillies -103
• Braves -107

Total

• Over 8 (-104)
• Under 8 (-116)

Aaron Nola Starts Against the Braves Tonight

Aaron Nola will be the starting pitcher for the Phillies tonight. Despite an overall successful season, his recent performances have been inconsistent. He hasn’t secured a win since the All Star Break, and has suffered losses in his last two away games. In these games, Nola has conceded 7 runs and 17 hits over the course of 11 innings. Despite only striking out 4 batters in each of his last four games, his last performance was impressive. During a home game against the Nationals, Nola delivered 6.2 scoreless innings, allowing only 7 hits and 2 walks. However, Philadelphia has lost 5 out of the last 6 games in which Nola has pitched. Given that his statistical performances have remained consistent, this could indicate a challenging start for him tonight.

Nola has had the fortune of facing the Braves twice already. In those two encounters, he has a balanced record of 1-1, although they occurred months apart. In March, the Phillies suffered a 12-4 loss to the Braves during which Nola only lasted 4.1 innings. He surrendered 2 home runs and a total of 6 earned runs on 11 hits in Philadelphia, but he managed to bounce back in his next game. On July 5th, while on the road, Nola pitched for 6 innings, allowing 3 runs on 5 hits and also gave up another 2 home runs. However, he struck out 8 batters and secured the win. The Braves have a batting average of .251 in August, but it drops to .237 when facing right-handed pitchers.

Regarding the Braves’ pitching, Max Fried is set to start. The left-hander’s ERA has been high at home, with his WHIP increasing to 1.54 at Truist Park. His recent performances have been subpar, with his last victory dating back to June 23rd. His overall performance on the mound has been disappointing.

Max Fried Since July

• 25.2 Innings Pitched
• 6.42 ERA
• 1.87 WHIP

Fried has already encountered the Phillies twice, with neither occasion going in his favor. His season debut saw him leave before completing a full inning against Philadelphia, having pitched only 0.2 innings and given up three runs on two hits and three walks. Despite this, the Braves managed a 12-4 win, sparing Fried the loss. More recently, Fried faced the Phillies on July 5th, this time taking the loss after allowing five runs on eleven hits, two of which were home runs, over six innings. This resulted in an 8-6 loss for the Braves. Since that time, Fried’s performance has continued to decline, leaving him with a challenging task ahead in his next game against the Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Best Bets

Phillies vs Braves Prediction: Phillies Win

Best Bet: Phillies F5 TT Over 1.5 (-145) BetOnline

I’m betting heavily on the Phillies’ performance today, expecting them to score runs frequently and early. Given their record against this pitcher and their strong .274 average against left-handed pitchers, I’m puzzled by the low expectations for them. The Phillies have previously surpassed this F5 number in both encounters with Fried, even managing to score 3 runs before the end of the first inning in one game. They’ve only scored more than 4 runs against the Braves in 3 out of 7 games this season, but they achieved this each time Fried was the starting pitcher.

The Phillies have been effective against left-handed pitchers, and Fried has had a tough time against them on two separate occasions. In addition, his performance hasn’t been up to par in the past two months. Although Philadelphia only boasts one Elite hitter against Fried today, I’m relying on historical data that suggests they should be able to score some runs off him. Five Phillies hitters have maintained a .300 batting average or higher in at least 18 appearances against Fried.

• Alec Bohm: .333 AVG, 27 AB
• Nick Castellanos: .611 AVG, 18 AB
• Bryce Harper: .303 AVG, 33 AB
• J.T. Realmuto: .381 AVG, 42 AB
• Treat Turner: .395 AVG, 43 AB

Among Phillies who have had over 20 at-bats against Fried, only Kyle Schwarber has a batting average below .300. Given the potential of the Phillies’ hitters, I anticipate an impressive performance from them tonight.

Bonus Bet: Phillies TT Over 3.5 (-131) BetOnline

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