Lance Zierlein 2024 NFL mock draft 4.0: Giants jump up for Drake Maye; Colts get Xavier Worthy at No. 15

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Just hours before the 2024 NFL Draft kicks off in Detroit (8 p.m. ET on NFL Network/ESPN/ABC), here is my fourth and final Round 1 projection.

Pick
1

Chicago Bears
(via CAR)

Caleb Williams
USC · QB · Junior

The Bears have officially secured their new franchise-leading quarterback and have proceeded to the No. 9 pick.

Pick
2

Washington Commanders

Jayden Daniels
LSU · QB · Senior

Is this Daniels’ first choice as a franchise? I don’t know and I don’t think the Commanders care, as they sit tight and draft the talented dual-threat quarterback.

Pick
3

New York Giants

Drake Maye
North Carolina · QB · Sophomore (RS)

PROJECTED TRADE WITH NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

In a trade up, the Giants might have to pay more than the standard trade chart would indicate, since the supply side of quarterback is dwindling but the demand remains high. Brian Daboll helped Josh Allen in Buffalo and may see a chance to do the same with the toolsy-but-inconsistent North Carolina quarterback. 

Pick
4

Arizona Cardinals

Marvin Harrison Jr.
Ohio State · WR · Junior

In this scenario where the Patriots are moving out of the third pick, it’s possible for Arizona to also negotiate a deal to move back. However, in my projection, I predict that they will hold their ground and select one of the best players in the draft.

Pick
5

Los Angeles Chargers

JC Latham
Alabama · OT · Junior

Surprise, surprise! While the Chargers could be looking at a receiver here — we all know they need one, after parting ways with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams — Jim Harbaugh sits tight and takes the biggest bully on the block to fortify his run game and set the tone on the right side for years to come.

Pick
6

New England Patriots

Joe Alt
Notre Dame · OT · Junior

PROJECTED TRADE WITH NEW YORK GIANTS

The Patriots have opted to forego both quarterback and wide receiver to secure their marquee left tackle, aiming to strengthen their front line in what may become a three-year rebuilding and restocking period for Eliot Wolf, Jerod Mayo and their team.

Pick
7

Tennessee Titans

Malik Nabers
LSU · WR · Junior

Even if the Nos. 5 and 6 picks don’t go the way I have them, the Titans better have a contingency plan in case someone jumps them for Joe Alt. In this scenario, they land a future Pro Bowler with the explosive talent to accelerate Will Levis‘ growth in Year 2.

Pick
8

Minnesota Vikings

J.J. McCarthy
Michigan · QB · Junior

PROJECTED TRADE WITH ATLANTA FALCONS

The Vikings wait it out for a bit and are rewarded with the ability to trade up just three spots to take McCarthy while hanging on to their No. 23 pick. (Per the Jimmy Johnson trade chart, they can accomplish this deal by moving a future Day 2 pick.)

Pick
9

Chicago Bears

Rome Odunze
Washington · WR · Senior

The Bears exhale in relief after an anxious wait to see if the Falcons would choose Odunze. Caleb Williams gains a new best friend and future WR1.

Pick
10

New York Jets

Taliese Fuaga
Oregon State · OT · Senior

In my last mock, I had Brock Bowers in this spot, thinking New York’s poised to GO FOR IT with Aaron Rodgers at age 40. However, upon further consideration, the Jets have a Band-Aid at right tackle in Morgan Moses. Fuaga gives them the real, long-term answer they have been looking for.

Pick
11

Atlanta Falcons

Dallas Turner
Alabama · Edge · Junior

PROJECTED TRADE WITH MINNESOTA VIKINGS

The Falcons need a pass rusher in the worst way, so the question simply becomes whether they take Turner, Byron Murphy II or Jared Verse here. The traits win out — Dallas hits Atlanta.

Pick
12

Denver Broncos

Quinyon Mitchell
Toledo · CB · Senior

Despite everyone waiting for Denver to trade up for a quarterback, I have heard the Broncos are quietly putting feelers out there to move back and add another pick. If that doesn’t come to fruition, Mitchell becomes an instant starter across from Pat Surtain II.

Pick
13

Las Vegas Raiders

Troy Fautanu
Washington · OL · Senior

The tall Washington player, characterized by his long arms and wide frame, is notably physical. He has the potential to immediately fill the position of right tackle, but also has the capacity to evolve into a powerful guard, should the Raiders decide to position him there.

Pick
14

New Orleans Saints

Olumuyiwa Fashanu
Penn State · OT · Junior (RS)

Fashanu has the traits and flashes of a top-tier offensive tackle, though some teams actually see his best NFL position as guard. New Orleans is much more likely to view him as a left tackle, where he will be expected to beat out Trevor Penning, who has struggled to find his footing in the pros.

Pick
15

Indianapolis Colts

Xavier Worthy
Texas · WR · Junior

The Colts need a weapon who can create explosive plays — and someone whom QB Anthony Richardson can grow with. I thought long and hard about tight end Brock Bowers here, but then I remembered that GM Chris Ballard was on the Chiefs staff that drafted Tyreek Hill and suddenly surmised, Oh, yeah — he’ll take the guy with world-class speed and separation potential.

Pick
16

Seattle Seahawks

Byron Murphy II
Texas · DT · Junior

This could potentially be an ideal situation for the Seahawks, who require a high-impact inside D-lineman, and have the opportunity to secure the top pick, who is significantly better than the rest.

Pick
17

Jacksonville Jaguars

Terrion Arnold
Alabama · CB · Sophomore (RS)

C.J. Stroud and the Texans put AFC South defenses on notice last season. Arnold is an in-your-face coverage talent with high football character and competitive fire Jacksonville coaches will love.

Pick
18

Cincinnati Bengals

Brock Bowers
Georgia · TE · Junior

The Bengals certainly didn’t expect to see Brock Bowers available here. While they need offensive line help and another receiver to eventually take over for Tee Higgins, they would be wise to grab Bowers here and target OL and WR on Day 2.

Pick
19

Los Angeles Rams

Jared Verse
Florida State · Edge · Senior

The Rams really need to find an edge rusher, and this pick could come down to Laiatu Latu or Verse. Verse lacks the pass-rush polish of Latu, but his medicals figure to be cleaner and he’s the stronger run defender of the two.

Pick
20

Pittsburgh Steelers

Graham Barton
Duke · IOL · Senior

I know the Steelers have needs at tackle, cornerback and wide receiver, but hear me out. Pittsburgh certainly could use help along the interior O-line, as well, and Barton might be one of the safest picks in the first round as someone who can play center or guard as an immediate starter.

Pick
21

Miami Dolphins

Brian Thomas Jr.
LSU · WR · Junior

The Dolphins might struggle to overlook a pass rusher like Laiatu Latu. However, considering the other quarterbacks in the AFC, Chris Grier and Mike McDaniel may perceive this as a strategic “arms race” pick. This could potentially make Miami the quickest team in football history.

Pick
22

Philadelphia Eagles

Cooper DeJean
Iowa · DB · Junior

The Eagles’ decision to add a physical defensive back with good instincts and the toughness to play outside or as a safety is fairly straightforward.

Pick
23

Arizona Cardinals
(via CLE through HOU)

Laiatu Latu
UCLA · Edge · Senior

PROJECTED TRADE WITH MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Latu’s slide down the board has ended, as he has been picked up by the Cardinals who moved up from No. 27 overall to secure the draft’s most refined pass rusher.

Pick
24

Dallas Cowboys

Tyler Guyton
Oklahoma · OT · Junior (RS)

The Cowboys opt to select the gifted yet inexperienced bookend from Oklahoma, who possesses the natural skills to potentially vie for a starting position at either tackle spot.

Pick
25

Las Vegas Raiders

Michael Penix Jr.
Washington · QB · Senior

PROJECTED TRADE WITH GREEN BAY PACKERS

The Raiders make a bold move to trade back into the first round to secure their potential future quarterback, who could rapidly transition into their current quarterback.

Pick
26

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Kool-Aid McKinstry
Alabama · CB · Junior

Tampa secures a cornerback with impressive size and versatility in their scheme, who is ready to immediately compete for a starting position.

Pick
27

Minnesota Vikings
(via HOU)

Nate Wiggins
Clemson · CB · Junior

PROJECTED TRADE WITH ARIZONA CARDINALS

Minnesota balances its trade up into the top ten by moving back. Despite this, the Vikings manage to secure a highly skilled cornerback with exceptional speed and athleticism for Brian Flores’ defense.

Pick
28

Buffalo Bills

Chop Robinson
Penn State · Edge · Junior

Brandon Beane needs a wide receiver after the Stefon Diggs trade. However, the general manager typically stays true to his draft board — and if a player with the upside of Robinson falls into his lap, he might not be able to pass him up.

Pick
29

Detroit Lions

Darius Robinson
Missouri · DL · Senior

The Lions are in position to challenge for a Super Bowl right now if they can hit on a pick or two. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Detroit try to make an aggressive move up the board for a pass rusher. If that doesn’t happen, Robinson can play base end or defensive tackle and step into snaps very quickly.

Pick
30

Baltimore Ravens

Amarius Mims
Georgia · OT · Junior

The Ravens need to eventually find a right tackle — and they might need to find one for this season. If Mims falls here, Baltimore could do much worse than adding one of the most physically gifted specimens in this draft.

Pick
31

San Francisco 49ers

Adonai Mitchell
Texas · WR · Junior

Mitchell possesses the height, weight, and speed necessary for success, but admittedly, he still has work to do to meet his full potential. However, he fits perfectly into the team. Furthermore, there may be opportunities for him to secure starting spots in San Francisco sooner rather than later.

Pick
32

Kansas City Chiefs

Xavier Legette
South Carolina · WR · Senior

It’s time for the Chiefs to find a wide receiver with not only size but the mindset to become an alpha whom Patrick Mahomes can lean on for the tough catch.

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