MLB Must Bet Prop: Total Bases, Team Totals & Home Runs | August 20, 2024

Happy Tuesday!

Today, two plays are particularly noticeable with a strong lineup going against a struggling pitcher, and a highly-ranked batter aiming to rebound against a weak arm. Have faith in the statistics and patterns – these opportunities are too good to miss.

Top MLB Prop Bets for Tuesday’s Slate

Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.

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Write Up Transparency

Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.

Yesterday’s write up went 0-4 (-4.0).

New day. New Vibes

Brent Rooker Over 1.5 Total Bases (+116)

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Brent Rooker, Athletics’ Latest Dad, Hitting the Ball Exceptionally Hard

The Stank:

Indeed, I’m returning to Papa Rooker. He’s back amongst the top five batters on Batters-Box.com. Despite a night with 0-for-4, and maintaining Monday’s second-best ranking, I’m more than pleased to continue supporting Mr. Rooker.

Small step down in the top 10 for HRR and TB yesterday
• 7 got 1+ hit
• 5 over 1.5 hits runs RBI
• 4 over 1.5 total bases

400+ FREE #MLB hitter ratings and more at https://t.co/ES7zRUE7pP

You don’t wanna miss these trends for Ohtani and other players in today’s top 10… pic.twitter.com/VIDGfGrTfG

— Mike Montgomery (@MikeMonty22) August 20, 2024

He’s facing Rays starter Shane Baz, who, according to Batters-Box.com, has allowed the most hard contact over the last three seasons among today’s starters. Baz is currently posting a 4.21 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP this season.

Rooker’s performance is exceptional when he has a top-tier rating. He manages to record a hit at least once in 76.19% of his games, exceeds 1.5 total bases in 57.14% of the games, and hits a home run in 26.19% of those games.

I have faith in the trends, the rating, and above all, the strength of a dad.

Sprinkle of the Day: 

  • Brent Rooker Home Run (+490)

Diamondbacks First Five Team Total Over 1.5 (-154) 2 Unit Play

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The Stank:

MISPRICE ALERT!!

I’ll take this play ten times out of ten. The Arizona Diamondbacks enter today with six elite-rated hitters, according to the current season ratings on Batters-Box.com. They also have the highest average hitter matchup rating, with the entire team graded as elite.

Edward Cabrera, the starting pitcher for the Marlins, currently has the lowest pitcher rating for this season. Cabrera is known for allowing a high average hard contact rate of 45.85% to hitters, the third highest in the league. His ERA stands at 5.76 and his WHIP at 1.50. Additionally, in 10 out of his 13 starts this season, opposing teams have scored more than two runs.

Arizona is the best team in the league at scoring in the first five innings, averaging 2.98 runs per game, including 2.71 runs on the road. Miami, on the other hand, allows the second-most runs to opponents, giving up 3.17 runs at home—well above 1.5 runs.

Trust the process.

Diamondbacks team total over 1.5 runs in the first five. 

Where to find more Advanced Analytics

I regularly visit Batters-Box.com for the top matchup ratings for my daily MLB betting. While it’s not the absolute authority, it’s an excellent starting point for your daily baseball wagering. Last season, I gained 98 units using Batters-Box.com. Skeptical? Take a look at my Action profile @cmarchio.

Small step down in the top 10 for HRR and TB yesterday
• 7 got 1+ hit
• 5 over 1.5 hits runs RBI
• 4 over 1.5 total bases

400+ FREE #MLB hitter ratings and more at https://t.co/ES7zRUE7pP

You don’t wanna miss these trends for Ohtani and other players in today’s top 10… pic.twitter.com/VIDGfGrTfG

— Mike Montgomery (@MikeMonty22) August 20, 2024

I also utilize FanGraphs, Statmuse, and ESPN to access other statistics which assist me in determining whether a player is worth my investment of time.

Good luck this season you psychos!

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