Week 7 NFL picks: Can Eagles stop Dolphins? Justin Herbert-Patrick Mahomes winner? Lions or Ravens?

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict every game of the 2023 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their records through Thursday night’s game and the rest of their Week 7 picks below.

NOTES:

1. Teams on bye: Bengals, Cowboys, Jets, Panthers, Texans, Titans.
2. The lines provided by Caesars Sportsbook are current as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 19 unless otherwise noted below.
3. * — Pick flipped after publishing.
4. ** — Final score prediction changed after publishing.

SUNDAY, OCT. 22

Why Brooke is taking the Ravens: Detroit is one of the hottest teams in football right now, having sandwiched three easy wins over NFC South teams around a prime-time beatdown of the Packers. The streak marks the first time since 1934(!) that the Lions have won four straight games in a season by 14-plus points, according to NFL Research. There’s a lot to be excited about, but Baltimore is a different beast with an electric quarterback capable of taking over games in a multitude of ways and a defense that ranks in the top five in scoring and total yards. Can Detroit’s defensive front keep Lamar Jackson off balance and force him into errors? How much will David Montgomery‘s absence be felt? It does appear Jahmyr Gibbs could return to the Lions’ lineup. Even still, this is the toughest opponent Detroit has seen in over a month — and it’ll show.

Why Dan is taking the Raiders: I don’t know who to trust in a potential QB matchup between Tyson Bagent and Brian Hoyer or Aidan O’Connell. I’m a little bit sad those could be the options. Hoyer has not won a game as a starter since 2016, when he played for the Bears. O’Connell turned it over three times in a loss in his first career start a few weeks back, and Bagent did so twice in one-and-a-half quarters of work in his NFL debut last week. If Las Vegas takes decent care of the ball, its defense is probably good enough to win this game.

UPDATES:

• NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported on Thursday that Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo has indeed been ruled out of Sunday’s game. Brian Hoyer will get the start for the Raiders, Rapoport reported Friday.
• On Friday, Bears coach Matt Eberflus announced that Justin Fields is out for Week 7, meaning undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent will make his first NFL start.

Why Tom is taking the Browns: Looking at the Browns’ results so far this season, it seems like teams with Lamar Jackson have the best shot at giving Cleveland’s defense trouble. The Colts do not have Lamar Jackson. I’m buying into the moment Jim Schwartz is enjoying and confident the defensive coordinator will know how to bottle up Gardner Minshew. And I’m relatively sure PJ Walker can do enough for the Browns to squeak this one out on the road.

Why Ali is taking the Bills: Buffalo followed up its London letdown by getting shut out through three quarters by the Giants and their 29th-ranked scoring defense on Sunday night. Per NFL Research, that hadn’t happened to the franchise in 82 straight games! In the Patriots, the Bills have yet another prime opportunity to work through what ails them. (Unless what truly ails them is Josh Allen’s right shoulder.) Nothing is easy for New England these days, with injuries and self-inflicted errors turning their season sideways. Sean McDermott is 5-1 against Bill Belichick since Tom Brady’s departure — including 3-0 at Foxborough — winning their three most recent meetings by double digits. And this Pats team is arguably more banged up and less talented than those previous editions were.

Why Gennaro is taking the Giants: These two teams headline an ignominious list: most sacks allowed. Entering Week 7, the Commanders have given up an NFL-high 34 sacks, while the Giants are ineptly nipping at their heels with 33. No other team is north of 25. So, in a matchup that promises pocket destruction, which defensive line owns the day? Conventional wisdom might favor Washington’s celebrated front, but I’m riding with a New York unit that’s long overdue for a sack party. Wink Martindale’s D posted a respectable 41 QB takedowns in 2022, just two fewer than the Commanders’ total. Through six games in 2023? New York has a league-low five sacks. Dexter Lawrence, who paced Big Blue with 7.5 sacks last season, has zero this fall. Look for Sexy Dexy to get off the schneid with a game-wrecking performance that’s assisted by Sam Howell‘s uncanny ability to take sacks.

Why Tom is taking the Buccaneers: The Bucs probably could have made things closer against the Lions if Baker Mayfield and his receivers hadn’t blown some plays that would have gone for big gains. Atlanta’s ranking in passing yards allowed (fourth) gives me some pause, but it’s worth noting that figure is fueled in part by low totals managed by Bryce Young and Jordan Love in Weeks 1 and 2. The Falcons’ dominance of everything but the final score (and turnover battle) against Washington gives me a little more pause, but I trust Mayfield at home over Desmond Ridder on the road.

Why Brooke is taking the Rams: There’s something special about watching defensive stars work. We get two in this tilt: Aaron Donald and T.J. Watt, the latter of whom is tied for the league lead with eight sacks this season. There’s much more pressure on Watt and this Steelers defense to slow a Rams offense that’s trending up with the return of the always-open Cooper Kupp. Even if Diontae Johnson returns for Kenny Pickett, I’m not convinced that Matt Canada’s unit — averaging 12.6 offensive points per game (30th in the NFL) — can keep up with Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford.

Why Dan is taking the Seahawks: Since stunning the Cowboys in Week 3, the Cardinals are 0-3 and have been outscored 95-45. Yikes. Seattle is not playing its best ball right now, but if there ever were a time to get right, it’s at home against Arizona. Another shaky game from Geno Smith could make things interesting, but I don’t think Smith and the Seahawks are as bad as they looked last week in Cincinnati. It might be best to take the pressure off Geno and pound the rock against a defense that allowed Kyren Williams to rush for 158 yards last week.

Why Gennaro is taking the Packers: With six touchdown passes in his first two games of this season, Jordan Love looked like the rightful heir to one of the most decorated quarterbacking thrones in football. With six interceptions in the past three games, Love suddenly resembles the court jester. But this week brings two critical factors that should help the first-year starter get right. First, Love gets to face the Broncos’ D, which ranks dead last in scoring defense (33.3 ppg), total defense (440.3 ypg), opponent completion percentage (76.4), passing touchdowns allowed (14) and opponent passer rating (117.8). Second, it appears Packers RB Aaron Jones could be back in action. His hamstring injury really sapped Green Bay’s offensive output.

Why Dan is taking the Chiefs: The Chiefs are playing at home and will have nine days rest after winning last Thursday night, compared with five days rest for the Chargers coming off a Monday night loss. Andy Reid is 27-3 in his career when he has a four-plus-day rest advantage over the opposition. Advantage: Kansas City. Justin Herbert is going to need to show me he’s right before I pick the Chargers in another tough game like this one, because he clearly was off against Dallas.

Why Tom is taking the Dolphins: The Dolphins have faced another top-tier NFL team once so far this season, in Week 4, and they could not slow a Buffalo offense that was clicking. The Eagles’ offense is not doing that. If I knew for sure Jalen Hurts and Co. would operate at their best, I’d likely go with them at home. At this point, I am not ready to say they’ll keep up with the NFL’s top passing and rushing outfit, not with Philly’s pass defense (20th in the NFL) looking like a vulnerability.

MONDAY, OCT. 23

Why Gennaro is taking the 49ers: Kirk Cousins in prime time is bad (SEE: 11-18 career record). Kirk Cousins on Monday night is worse (2-10). So how about Kirk Cousins on Monday night facing an angry 49ers team that just suffered its first loss? Oh, and did I mention that Captain Kirk will be missing the best wide receiver on Planet Earth? In the Vikings’ first game without Justin Jefferson this past Sunday, they only managed 220 total yards against Chicago’s shoddy D, converting just two of 13 third-down attempts. Not encouraging with the mighty Niners rolling into town. Minnesota hasn’t won a game at U.S. Bank Stadium since last Christmas Eve. Somebody check the gjallarhorn.

THURSDAY’S GAME

Why Ali is taking the Jaguars: The Saints defense rightfully receives plenty of adulation, but don’t overlook what the Jaguars’ unit has done in recent weeks. Since the start of the team’s three-game win streak (Week 4), Jacksonville has generated the most turnovers (9) and points off turnovers in the NFL (31; tied with Jets, Lions). The Jags — who look like they’ll be without CB1 Tyson Campbell (hamstring) — will probably need to turn takeaways into touchdowns on Thursday night, too, if they’re to extend their run to four straight. And they should get at least a few opportunities to do so, as the Saints have given up the rock five times over their past three games. Despite one of the best collections of skill players in the NFL, New Orleans’ offense just hasn’t quite clicked yet, eclipsing the 20-point mark only once this season. If Trevor Lawrence‘s knee issue prevents him from suiting up, discard everything you just read. Advantage: Saints.

Visit ResponsiblePlay.org to learn more about responsible betting.