Arslanbek Makhmudov set for must-win fight against Guido Vianello

THIS time last year Arslanbek Makhmudov was seen by some as a dark horse in the heavyweight division. With frightening punching power and a frightening presence to match, the Russian was not someone you would want to bump into in a dark alley let alone a boxing ring. Apart from a ten-round points victory over Carlos Takam in 2022, the ‘Lion’ looked like a mighty force, especially in the opening rounds where almost all his knockouts were seized.

When Makhmudov and Agit Kabayel signed to fight on the Day of Reckoning Card last December, few gave Kabayel a chance. The Lion was expected to maul his opponent and claim his territory in a brutal, emotionless way. Instead, the bout was more reminiscent of the bull and the matador as Kabayel made Makhmudov miss and then made him pay.

During this week’s fight build-up, Makhmudov reiterated how he broke his right hand in the second round against Kabayel. The 35-year-old suffered two fractures. However, it’s difficult to quantify how much of a difference this would have had against Kabayel who was avoiding the big right hand most of the time.

Three knockdowns in the fourth round from body shots displayed a human side to Makhmudov who was saved by the referee from taking further punishment. Sergio Mora on the DAZN commentary team summed it up well, “I don’t care how big and strong and scary and intimidating you are, body shots make cowards of us all.”

And tomorrow night we will find out if Makhmudov still possesses the inner animosity to emerge victorious against Guido Vianello. Vianello looked promising in the early stages of his career, yet two losses and a draw on his record aren’t a good look, particularly against the likes of Kingsley Ibeh and Jonathan Rice. To Vianello’s credit though, a split-decision loss to Efe Ajagba in April raised his stock and restored some of his potential.

With ten out of 12 wins coming via knockout, Vianello is, at least on paper, a much tougher opponent than Makhmudov’s most recent victim, Miljan Rovcanin. In the animal kingdom, Rovcanin was like a baby lamb for Makhmudov. It was an easy second-round knockout so the Russian could get his confidence back and rediscover his killer instinct.

The 0 or your undefeated record remains a major selling point in professional boxing, and if it goes, you may never be the same fighter again. Thanks to Turki Alalshikh, more of the elite boxers are challenging each other, so the myth of the invincible fighter is slowly eroding to the point where last performances rather than perfect records will hold value.

As mentioned, Vianello’s record is already a perfectionist’s nightmare. However, the Italian has arguably less to lose than Makhmudov, who goes into the contest as the favourite. One must imagine Vianello will target Makhmudov’s body whereas Makhmudov should take assurance from the fact that his opponent has been stopped before.

Based on the undercard of Christian Mbilli vs Sergiy Derevyanchenko, Makhmudov-Vianello is a crossroads bout where neither man can afford to lose. At 35, Makhmudov is not old for a heavyweight, but another defeat would surely drop him down Bob Arum’s list of priorities.

As for Vianello, ‘The Gladiator’ needs a high-profile win if he wants to be taken as a serious heavyweight contender. The man from Roma is only 30, although if losses keep piling up on his resume, he might end up going down the gatekeeper or high-level journeyman route. A former competitor at the 2016 Summer Olympics, Vianello was highly touted but hasn’t reached his potential so far.

However, the beauty of these must-win fights exists in the lucrative opportunities thereafter. With his excellency continuing to increase his involvement in boxing and his love for heavyweights never dying, the winner of Makhudov-Vianello could find themselves in another massive fight at the end of the year or in early 2025.

It’s a game of snakes and ladders. Both men have slid down the rankings in recent years. But one emphatic performance can change everything. There’s arguably never been a better time to be a heavyweight with astronomical purses on the line. Plus, with the top three Oleksandr Usyk, Anthony Joshua, and Tyson Fury edging toward the end of their careers, the world titles will eventually scatter and be up for grabs.