Connecticut Sun vs New York Liberty Prediction & Picks (7/16): WNBA’s Top Two Teams Battle in Brooklyn

The WNBA will shortly press the pause button for nearly a month, but before it does, there’s a tasty #1 vs #2 matchup to look forward to tonight as the Connecticut Sun visit the New York Liberty (7:00 pm ET, Amazon Prime Video).

Following today’s four games and tomorrow’s two games, the league’s next regular season action will not be until August 15.

Either the league-leading Liberty (20-4) will enter the break with a two and a half game lead at the top of the WNBA standings, or the Sun (18-5) will be only a half-game behind.

Since losing to the Indiana Fever, New York has won three straight games, including a 71-68 win at Mohegan Sun Arena six days ago. It was their second win there this season, which accounts for two of Connecticut’s three home losses.

Will the Sun turn the tables tonight at Barclays Center? Or will the Liberty make it three in three against the Sun this season? Another close encounter is likely on the horizon.

Connecticut Sun vs New York Liberty Odds

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Spread

• Connecticut Sun +4 (-110)
• New York Liberty -4 (-110)

Over/Under

• Over 153.5 (-110)
• Under 153.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Connecticut Sun +160
• New York Liberty -185

Connecticut Sun vs New York Liberty Betting Analysis

If the Liberty are to finally win the franchise’s first championship this season, they will have to go through some stiff competition, including the Sun.

The playoffs, of course, are a different animal than the regular season. But the Liberty have passed most of their tests against teams they could face in either their second round or WNBA Finals, going 5-1 against the Sun (2-0), Aces (1-0), Lynx (1-1), and Storm (1-0).

In both previous matchups against Connecticut, New York trailed at some point in the fourth quarter but rallied to get the W.

In the first meeting on June 8, the then-undefeated Sun led by five early in the fourth quarter, but the Liberty turned the tide with a 12-2 run and went to win 82-75. And in last Wednesday’s matchup, they trailed 68-67 with 2:11 left but didn’t allow a point the rest of the way.

Can the Sun finally close the deal tonight? Their 8-2 road record is certainly impressive, but where the Liberty have thrived against top teams, the Sun have not.

In six games against the Liberty, Aces, Lynx, and Storm, the Sun are just 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS. Both wins have come against the Lynx, needing late free throws in overtime to win by a point at home and benefitting from Napheesa Collier’s early exit due to injury in a 78-73 win in Minneapolis on July 4.

There’s a lot to like about the Sun as a team, and the Liberty aren’t without their concerns. Breanna Stewart still hasn’t quite found her shot and is 0 for 14 from three in four games this month.

But in a game that is likely to be decided in the late stages, there’s only one team I can trust here, and that is the home team. They have already shown their mettle twice against the Sun, and they will do so again tonight.

Connecticut Sun vs New York Liberty Prediction & Picks

Sun vs Liberty Prediction: Liberty to win

Sun vs Liberty Picks: Liberty -4 & DeWanna Bonner to have 8+ rebounds (+150 at Bovada)

I expect another close game between Connecticut and New York, but I think another strong finish and some late free throws will help the Liberty cover the spread.

For me, the total is a pass tonight. The over is 8-4 in New York’s home games, but it is only 1-5 in their games against the Sun (1-1), Aces (0-1), Lynx (0-2), and Storm (0-1), including home games against Seattle and Minnesota. If I were to recommend a total pick, I’d lean towards the over because it’s a low total compared to most Liberty games.

As much as I enjoy points props, my favorite Sun-Liberty prop pick is for Bonner to hit the boards hard. She had eight rebounds in the first matchup with New York and nine in last week’s contest, and she has recorded eight or more rebounds in seven of Connecticut’s ten road games this season. At +150, the value is exceptional based on how the trends line up.

Other WNBA Betting Information

Where to Bet on the WNBA This Season

Thanks to the growing popularity of the WNBA and women’s basketball, WNBA odds are available far and wide this season.

In addition to offering odds on each game on the schedule, many sportsbooks also offer a variety of WNBA futures odds, such as championship winner odds, WNBA MVP odds, WNBA Rookie of the Year odds, win total odds, and more.

There are plenty of sports betting sites you can choose from that are good for WNBA betting. In addition to BetOnline, here are several books that we have reviewed and highly recommend:

• BetDSI (review)
• BetUS (review)
• Bookmaker (review)
• Bovada (review)
• MyBookie (review)
• Sportsbetting.ag (review)

What if you don’t have an account at a book on this list? Check out our reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds.

Interested in Learning More About WNBA Betting?

Looking to learn more about the ins and outs of betting on the WNBA? Check out our WNBA betting guide. Also, if you’d like to learn more about betting on WNBA player prop bets, our NBA player props guide is a handy resource to utilize.

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