Week 14 NFL picks: Dolphins unanimously chosen to beat Titans; Packers top Giants for fourth straight

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict every game of the 2023 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their records through Sunday’s games and the rest of their Week 14 picks below.

NOTES:

1. Teams on bye: Arizona Cardinals, Washington Commanders.
2. The lines provided by Caesars Sportsbook are current as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, Dec. 7 unless otherwise noted below.
3. * — Pick flipped after publishing.
4. ** — Final score prediction changed after publishing.

MONDAY, DEC. 11

Why Ali is taking the Dolphins: Miami has ridden its three-game win streak to the top of the AFC standings, steamrolling the competition along the way. No reason to think the Dolphins won’t remain in pole position after Sunday. Mike McDaniel’s group is undefeated at Hard Rock Stadium this season (5-0), winning each game by at least a touchdown, with four decided by two touchdowns or more. Meanwhile, the Titans maintain ignominious company with the Panthers as the only two teams to be winless on the road this year (0-7), with Mike Vrabel’s team losing those seven tilts by an average of 11 points. Miami is playing too soundly on both sides of the ball to let Tennessee hang around in this one, even if Derrick Henry‘s Week 13 breakout carries over to some degree on Monday night.

Why Tom is taking the Packers: Jordan Love‘s recent turnaround has been much more convincing than the Giants’ modest two-game win streak against the Commanders and Patriots. Over the past three weeks, Love has thrown eight TD passes against zero picks while going 3-0, besting two upper-echelon contenders (the Lions and Chiefs). I trust him to negate the potential advantage that Saquon Barkley might have against the Packers’ 30th-ranked run defense. As for Tommy DeVito, while I admire his pluckiness, I’m not sure how he’ll hold up against Green Bay’s 10th-ranked pass defense.

SUNDAY’S GAMES

Why Dan is taking the Falcons: An opportunity awaits to sit atop the league’s most mediocre division heading into the season’s final four weeks. Atlanta’s ability to run the ball outside and the Tampa Bay defense’s vulnerability in that area might give Arthur Smith’s squad an edge. A feisty Falcons defense (seventh in scoring and 10th in yards allowed per game) could be the difference, too. History is working against the Buccaneers on that front — Baker Mayfield is 1-11 on the road against teams that entered the contest in the top 10 in both scoring and total defense. Mayfield and the Bucs typically don’t go down without a fight, though.

Why Brooke is taking the Ravens: The Rams have won three straight following their Week 10 bye with both the offense and defense playing their best football of the season in that span. Matthew Stafford and Co. have averaged 30 points per game, while the Aaron Donald-led D has allowed 16.3 points per game in that span. Unfortunately, none of Los Angeles’ previous three opponents have been anywhere near Baltimore’s level. Coming off the bye week, the Ravens head into this game ranked in the top 10 in scoring, total and rushing offense, while also boasting the No. 1 scoring defense. With Lamar Jackson having his best season in many categories, Baltimore should continue to push for the AFC’s top seed and improve to 7-0 this season against teams that are .500 or worse.

Why Ali is taking the Lions: Chicago played well enough to win when these teams met in Detroit three weeks ago, and that truth has to be gnawing at Matt Eberflus’ club as it prepares for Round 2. Although the Bears’ defense ultimately fell apart down the stretch in that Week 11 meeting, the unit and its four forced turnovers were also a significant reason Chicago held a lead late into the fourth quarter. In fact, the defense is largely to thank for Chicago’s recent turnaround (comparatively speaking). Since Week 9, Montez Sweat‘s first game in a Bears uni, the defense ranks fifth or better in yards per game, yards per play, takeaways and opponents’ time of possession. If that unit can again force Jared Goff into mistakes, creating additional opportunities for Justin Fields to do special things, there’s certainly a scenario in which Chicago closes this one out. But the Bears have burned me too many times this season to make me pick against the nine-win team.

Why Brooke is taking the Bengals: I’m not going as far as saying Jake Browning “lit the world on fire” in the overtime win at Jacksonville, but he displayed more than enough to give a Bengals team some hope, connecting on an astounding 86.5 percent of his passes for 354 yards and a touchdown. Browning’s only had two starts, but it’s tough to beat a team with that level of QB play — a luxury the Colts don’t have with an unpredictable Gardner Minshew, though he is 5-3 as Indy’s starter this season. Minshew’s wily with a blossoming supporting cast and a head man in Shane Steichen who is making a case for Coach of the Year. Turnovers are sure to be a huge decider, so if the Bengals limit Tyler Boyd‘s pass attempts, I trust them more than Minshew, who is tied for the third-most turnover-worthy plays this season with 21, per Pro Football Focus.

Why Dan is taking the Browns: The starting quarterbacks for both teams have not been confirmed as of this writing, so I’m picking the defense I trust the most in this matchup. Yes, the Browns’ once-stout D has fallen on hard times, getting shredded for 32.5 points per game and nearly 350 yards per game in its last two outings, but at least the offenses in those contests had their starting quarterbacks. Jacksonville is licking its wounds after being scorched by Bengals backup Jake Browning. Asking the shorthanded Jaguars — on a short week, no less — to remain undefeated on the road seems like too tall a task.

Why Dan is taking the Saints: We’ve reached desperation mode for the Saints. They have fallen from first to third place in the NFC South after losing three in a row and need a victory in the worst way. Fortunately for them, they have a date with the league’s worst team. The New Orleans defense is supposed to be an imposing group that can pressure Bryce Young, forcing the rookie into mistakes. Dennis Allen has to get that unit to play like it did early in the season, prior to the significant drop-off of the past several weeks.

Why Ali is taking the Texans: For as dominant and exciting as the Jets’ defense has been this season, the team’s offense has been equally inept and dreadful. New York, and its constantly rotating QB carousel, has an NFL-worst -0.26 expected points added per dropback. That’s the analytics way of saying the Jets are really, really bad when they try to pass. The franchise’s failure to solve its quarterback problem has only become more glaring in recent weeks, as multiple inexperienced backups (Tommy DeVito and Jake Browning, among others) have shined after being thrust into starting roles elsewhere. The Texans, of course, have no such issue under center. C.J. Stroud is on a fast track to winning Offensive Rookie of the Year, entering the week ranked top five in EPA per dropback, passer rating, passing yards and TD-to-INT ratio. Gang Green’s defense could be the rookie’s most rigorous test yet, but unless the unit can generate two (or maybe three) defensive scores, it’s likely to get let down again by the offense.

Why Gennaro is taking the Raiders: Did Josh Dobbs turn into a pumpkin in his last outing? The four-pick nightmare in a painful 12-10 home loss to the Bears had Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell so shook that he openly pondered a quarterback change. Dobbs ultimately remains in the starting lineup, and it appears he’ll be joined for the first time by Justin Jefferson, who’s on track to return from the hamstring injury that’s sidelined him since Week 5. Instant chemistry between the journeyman passer and superstar pass catcher is no guarantee, but it certainly can’t hurt Dobbs to have that kind of weapon at his disposal. Meanwhile, Raiders rookie QB Aidan O’Connell is coming off his best NFL game, having acquitted himself quite well against the Chiefs’ stout defense despite the loss. And you can bet interim Raiders coach Antonio Pierce will look to lighten the young QB’s load by continuing to lean on Josh Jacobs‘ bell-cow ability, even against a Vikings defense that’s been pretty strong against the run. In an imperfect game between two incomplete teams, AOC improves to 3-1 at home, while the Passtronaut continues falling back to Earth.

Why Brooke is taking the 49ers: I was dead wrong about the 49ers last week. They put on an offensive clinic against the Eagles, improving to 9-0 this season with Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel healthy. Those two will be back on the field again Sunday — bad news for a Seahawks team that has lost four straight (including the playoffs) to its archrival. As explosive as Seattle’s offense looked last week — hello, DK Metcalf! — the defense has been putrid over the last month, ranking 31st in points allowed (30.4) and 28th in total yards per game allowed (385.2) and rush yards per game allowed (150.6) since Week 9. That’s not ideal, especially when you’re hitting the road to face a pair of MVP candidates in Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey.

Why Gennaro is taking the Chiefs: We all circled this matchup when the NFL schedule was released back in May, though nobody anticipated these two teams would enter the game with 10 combined losses. Strange days indeed, as the Chiefs’ defense is better than their offense, while the Bills aren’t even in the current AFC playoff field. But in a quarterback league that’s currently ravaged by quarterback injuries, the football gods owe us an enticing display from two of the position’s very best — Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes — and I think we’ll get it! Wishful thinking? Perhaps a bit, considering neither signal-caller is playing his best football in 2023. That said, these two always seem to bring out the best in each other, as evidenced by their numbers in five career head-to-head matchups:

• Allen vs. Mahomes: 2-3 W-L, 334.2 total yards per game, 107.9 passer rating.
• Mahomes vs. Allen: 3-2 W-L, 346.0 total yards per game, 103.5 passer rating.

In a coin-flip game, I’ll play the Arrowhead angle.

Why Tom is taking the Broncos: The Broncos are not necessarily a well-oiled machine, but they don’t quit — at least, not lately. In Week 13, they turned what could have been a blowout road loss into a real fight. I don’t trust the Chargers to bring anything close to the level of moxie showed by either Houston or Denver in that contest. Since the Broncos’ Week 3 pasting by the Dolphins, they’ve lost just three times, by an average of 8.7 points. I might pick the Bolts in a skills competition, but in an actual 60-minute game, give me Sean Payton’s group, even in Inglewood.

Why Gennaro is taking the Cowboys: Jalen Hurts‘ health has become such a topic of consternation in Philadelphia that it feels like we’re overlooking the alarming development on the other side of the ball: The Eagles’ defense has become a sieve. The unit has given up 400-plus yards in four of its past five outings. In 20 games last season, including the playoffs, that happened once — in a December defeat at Dallas. That’s a particularly ominous coincidence as the Eagles approach this December’s duel at Jerry World. Not only is Philly struggling on defense, but Dallas is scorching earth on offense, averaging a league-best 32.3 point per game with QB Dak Prescott emerging as a top MVP candidate. It’s a formula for more home-team hijinks with the Salvation Army kettle.

THURSDAY’S GAME

Why Tom is taking the Steelers: The Steelers fooled me again in Week 13, playing like they were trying to give back some of the yards they gained in Week 12. Pittsburgh’s season is now threatening to fall apart — but then, the Patriots have been living at rock bottom for weeks. With Kenny Pickett out, Mitchell Trubisky will step in for his first start since beating the Panthers in Week 15 of last season. New England has won just three games between then and now. Trubisky and the Steelers’ sixth-ranked scoring defense conspire to keep the hapless Pats from a fourth victory in the span.

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