The First Read: What to like, dislike about all 14 NFL playoff teams; final MVP rankings for 2023 season

What to like: The Ravens claimed the title of the league’s best team with their stellar play over the past month. They mailed in the regular-season finale by resting key starters in Saturday’s loss to Pittsburgh, but the previous two weeks cemented them as favorites to make this year’s Super Bowl. They blew out Miami by 37 points. They went into San Francisco and beat a dominant 49ers team by 14. Baltimore also has the likely Most Valuable Player (quarterback Lamar Jackson is in position to take that award for the second time in his career) leading the best offense he’s ever had around him, a defense that was the stingiest in the league and excellent special teams. Baltimore exploded on the rest of the NFL in the second half of the season. It now has its best chance to win a championship since Jackson arrived in 2018.

What not to like: Recent playoff history. The only reason anybody would question the Ravens is their lack of postseason success lately. They held the No. 1 seed in 2019 — back when Jackson won his first MVP award — and promptly suffered a painful upset to Tennessee in the Divisional Round. Baltimore also has only one playoff win with Jackson, and it’s hard to forget how injuries compromised him and this team at the end of the last two seasons. I get it — every year is different. The Ravens had better hope that is indeed the case once they finish their first-round bye and start playing again in a couple weeks.

Playoff projection: This isn’t the same Ravens team that fell apart in that loss to the Titans in January of 2020. Jackson is a much better passer and the weapons around him are far more dangerous. They’ll capitalize on home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and then beat whomever the NFC offers up in the Super Bowl. This team isn’t losing again this season.

What to like: The Bills once again are making a late-season surge. This team has gotten hot down the stretch in each of the past two seasons, and Buffalo has now won five straight games after sitting at 6-6 at the outset of December. The key has been the decision by head coach Sean McDermott to fire former offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and replace him with Joe Brady. That move has opened the door for running back James Cook to emerge as a star. It’s also helped ease some of the burdens on quarterback Josh Allen, who too often has gotten himself into trouble by pressing for big plays. It also helps that the Bills nabbed the No. 2 seed with their win over Miami in Week 18. Having a forward path with at least two games in Buffalo — where weather is likely to be a factor — will give the Bills even more confidence to make a run.

What not to like: The first three quarters of Buffalo’s Week 18 win over Miami epitomized the Bills’ problems. Allen threw two interceptions, lost a fumble and nearly capsized his team’s chances all by himself. He made several plays to help Miami ultimately win the game, but this always has been Buffalo’s conundrum. Allen played poorly in a Week 17 win over New England. He faced similar struggles in beating the Chargers three weekends ago. How long can the Bills ride this roller coaster and keep winning? We’re about to find out.

Playoff projection: The Bills have been so up and down this season — and over the past month — that it’s hard to predict what they’ll do. That said, they’ll likely win as long as they’re at home, then fall to Baltimore in the AFC Championship Game.

What to like: The defense has been the strength of this team all season and that will have to be the case once again in the playoffs. Only four opponents managed to score more than 20 points against Kansas City all year. It wouldn’t even be far-fetched to say this defense was responsible for at least four victories, including a huge win over Miami in Germany. The best thing about this bunch is the consistency at all three levels. The defensive line has an array of pass rushers, led by Pro Bowl defensive tackle Chris Jones. The linebackers are athletic and versatile. And the secondary might be the key to the entire operation, with talented cornerbacks like L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie creating problems with their sticky coverage ability and disruptive blitzing. The Chiefs have spent years trying to assemble a solid defense to help star quarterback Patrick Mahomes. This season, they fielded a great one.

What not to like: Anybody familiar with the 2023 Chiefs realizes this offense still can’t be trusted as the postseason begins. The wide receivers have been an outright disaster, as they’ve had issues with drops, miscommunications and even lining up onside in critical situations. The offensive line has become unreliable, with right tackle Jawaan Taylor being especially noteworthy, as he leads the league in penalties. Even Mahomes has fallen below the unbelievably high standard he’s set for himself, producing a career-high in interceptions (14). The Chiefs have been one of the worst teams in the league in turnover differential all year. That doesn’t bode well in January.

Playoff projection: There’s been some rumblings that you can’t count out these Chiefs because they’ve won two Super Bowls and played in three of the last four. That sentiment would sound better if you hadn’t seen them play at all this year. This team can win one game in the playoffs. Don’t count on the Chiefs winning two. K.C. will be done after the Divisional Round.

What to like: This team plays with an undeniable fearlessness, especially when rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud is healthy. Just look at Houston’s first offensive play of the game in Saturday’s must-win showdown with Indianapolis. The Colts went on a long drive that culminated in a field goal. Stroud dropped back after taking his first snap and hit Nico Collins on a 75-yard touchdown pass. That’s the way the rookie quarterback has been operating all season and it’s clearly rubbed off on the people around him. But the Texans aren’t just a one-man team. They have plenty of unheralded players who’ve grown up in a hurry and helped Houston claim the AFC South title after three years of miserable football. Head coach DeMeco Ryans and general manager Nick Caserio deserve a ton of credit for the roster they assembled. This is a team filled with players who know how to win.

What not to like: The Texans are fun, but they’re also young. The best-case scenario is they resemble the 2021 Bengals, a team that overcame a long stretch of lousy play and thundered through the playoffs behind a talented quarterback and an opportunistic defense. It’s also quite likely that the spotlight of the postseason affects them in an adverse fashion. It’s one thing to surprise people in the middle of the regular season when nobody expects it. It’s an entirely different matter when the intensity heightens in January. The Texans are tough-minded, no doubt. They also aren’t sneaking up on anybody for the rest of this season.

Playoff projection: As good as Stroud has been, the Browns figure to be a tough matchup for him and this offense. Houston won’t survive Super Wild Card Weekend.

What to like: It’s easy to talk about the Browns’ defense, but the excitement around this team should center squarely on its quarterback play these days. Joe Flacco turns 39 years old on January 16, yet he’s playing like he’s still in his prime. The Browns have won four of five games since he entered the lineup after spending the majority of this season out of the league. A once-stagnant offense — one that had relied on two other backups since starter Deshaun Watson was lost to a season-ending shoulder injury — has suddenly become explosive, with wide receiver Amari Cooper and tight end David Njoku taking turns tormenting opposing defenses. Yes, it’s fair to wonder how long Flacco can continue shocking people with his play. It’s also worth noting that the last time he got hot heading into the postseason, he led the 2012 Ravens to a championship. 

What not to like: Injuries have ravaged the Browns this season, so much so that health problems could plague them in the playoffs. More than a quarter of this team’s salary cap is on injured reserve. The offensive line is especially concerning, as three different tackles (starters Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills Jr. and rookie Dawand Jones) have been lost for the season. The Browns have shown impressive resilience by overcoming those losses, but life is also vastly different in the postseason. The top four teams at sacking the quarterback reside in the AFC (Baltimore, Kansas City, Miami and Buffalo). Cleveland will have to deal with one or two of them if it wants to win the conference. 

Playoff projection: The Browns are scary for all the obvious reasons — most notably, they have a veteran quarterback and a stout defense. They’re also good enough to beat the Texans on the road in the wild-card game. However, all the fun vibes surrounding this team will end after that. The Browns beat the Ravens in Baltimore earlier this season. They won’t duplicate that feat in these playoffs.

What to like: The Dolphins are the most explosive team in the NFL when they’re healthy. You look at the collective speed of their skill players — namely, wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and running backs Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane — and you know opposing defensive coordinators can’t contain everybody. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa also completed a full season without any health problems, which has meant everything to this team’s confidence. Add in a defense that has been much saltier with coordinator Vic Fangio running it, and you get a Miami team that is far more equipped to deal with January football.

What not to like: It would be great if the Dolphins actually had all those players named in the previous section available. Mostert and Waddle didn’t play against Buffalo in Sunday’s season-ending loss, and Hill hobbled to the sideline with an injury in the final minute. The Dolphins also didn’t have star cornerback Xavien Howard available (because of a foot injury), while their two best pass rushers (Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips) are on injured reserve. And let’s not even get into the fact that Miami has beaten just one winning team all year. This team has limped to the finish after a promising start.

Playoff projection: The Dolphins lost to Kansas City earlier this season, when the Chiefs’ defense dominated the game. Unless Miami can get healthy in a hurry, the same thing is going to happen this Super Wild Card Weekend.

What to like: They’ve finally figured out how to score points. There weren’t too many offenses in the NFL that faced more scrutiny than Pittsburgh’s, and that’s for good reason. That also was before head coach Mike Tomlin turned to third-string QB Mason Rudolph to lead this unit, somehow igniting a spark. The Steelers didn’t hit the 30-point mark at any point in their first 14 games. They did it twice after Rudolph went under center, resulting in critical wins over Cincinnati and Seattle as Pittsburgh rallied down the stretch. The most important thing Rudolph did was create some explosive plays with embattled wide receiver George Pickens. Rudolph was timely yet again in Saturday’s win over Baltimore, as his 71-yard touchdown pass to Diontae Johnson gave Pittsburgh a second-half lead it never relinquished. Tomlin could’ve gone back to starter Kenny Pickett in that finale. It’s likely Rudolph will keep the job until this season ends.

What not to like: There’s a very real chance that Pittsburgh plays this wild-card game in Buffalo without its best player, edge rusher T.J. Watt. He didn’t finish that game against Baltimore after spraining the medial collateral ligament in his left knee in the second half. That injury is considered significant enough that it could sideline Watt for at least a couple weeks. That’s better than a torn ligament, but it’s not the kind of news you want to hear when discussing a player who boasts a league-leading 19 sacks this season. Watt was a major reason why the Steelers were able to stay in playoff contention when that offense was so brutal. Take him away from Pittsburgh at this point in the year and the damage will be hard to measure.

Playoff projection: The Steelers pulled off a hell of feat just by qualifying for the postseason. They aren’t winning a wild-card game, not with Watt compromised.

What to like: San Francisco was the best team in the league for most of this season, until the Ravens blasted them at home three weeks ago. That defeat stunned plenty of observers, but it shouldn’t be a complete indictment of the 49ers. This team is loaded throughout the roster, with nine players named to the Pro Bowl. The 49ers have scored at least 30 points nine times this season and allowed less than 20 on 11 occasions. Most importantly, they brutalized the two NFC playoff participants that were supposed to give them the most problems, beating Dallas by 32 and Philadelphia by 23. The 49ers know they missed out on a great opportunity to reach the Super Bowl last season when quarterback Brock Purdy was lost to an elbow injury in the NFC title game. They’re on a mission to make sure that doesn’t happen again.

What not to like: The 49ers are at their best when they jump out to early leads and bludgeon teams. It’s a different story when they fall behind or adversity hits. Those situations expose Purdy to the type of scenarios that make it much harder for him to succeed. A three-game losing streak earlier in the season had plenty to do with injuries to left tackle Trent Williams, wide receiver Deebo Samuel and running back Christian McCaffrey. The loss to Baltimore had more to do with the Ravens intercepting Purdy four times. In all those situations, it was apparent that the 49ers didn’t have many answers if they couldn’t control the game. Fair or not, this will be a lingering question about them until Purdy finds a way to answer it.

Playoff projection: San Francisco should be playing in the Super Bowl again. They’re that good and every other team in the NFC has serious flaws. 

What to like: The combination of quarterback Dak Prescott and wide receiver CeeDee Lamb has been the difference for Dallas this season. Prescott produced the best season of his career at a time when most people would’ve been happy with him simply avoiding huge mistakes. Lamb became an elite player, one who dominated opponents on a weekly basis while setting franchise records. There are plenty of other things to like about Dallas — most notably, linebacker Micah Parsons and the chaos he can create — but this is a season where the Cowboys finally can claim their quarterback is playing better than anybody else in the NFC at this time of year. That will mean a lot if they move deeper into the postseason.

What not to like: The Cowboys’ defense better be ready to get physical. This is a unit that excels at hunting quarterbacks and creating turnovers in bunches when it’s playing with a lead. It also becomes a lot less productive when opponents decide to play smashmouth football. The Bills infamously bullied the Cowboys in a 31-10 defeat — when Buffalo ran for 266 yards — but Dallas had similar issues in losses to both San Francisco and Arizona earlier this year. The Cowboys won’t face a dominant rushing attack when meeting Green Bay in the Wild Card Round, but it’s coming later in the postseason. The Lions and 49ers will both be looking to pound the rock in potential rematches.  

Playoff projection: Winning the NFC East and grabbing the No. 2 seed was monumental for Dallas. The Cowboys will win two games at home, then fall to San Francisco in the NFC championship.

What to like: The Lions are a tough, physical team — that always plays well at this time of year. They know they want to run behind a huge offensive line and utilize the talents of running back Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Quarterback Jared Goff has played in big games — including a Super Bowl loss to New England as a member of the 2018 Rams — so he understands the pressure that comes with these moments. This also is a squad that has been thirsting to compete on this type of stage. It’s been more than three decades since Detroit won a playoff game. The Lions desperately want to make that the next drought that ends for this franchise.

What not to like: First off, seeing rookie Sam LaPorta get carted off the field with a hyperextended knee in Sunday’s win over Minnesota was tough. The tight end made the Pro Bowl in his first season, so the injury’s clearly a major concern for Detroit’s third-ranked offense. On the other side of the ball, the Lions’ defense isn’t as bad as it was last season, but the unit also hasn’t been as reliable as you’d hope. Detroit finished the regular season ranked 23rd in the league in points allowed. The pass rush also has been problematic for most of the year, as the Lions didn’t have a great counterpart to pair with Aidan Hutchinson (although edge rusher James Houston, who had eight sacks in seven games as a rookie in 2022, could finally be healthy again after fracturing his ankle in Week 2). The most realistic path to the Super Bowl will involve the Lions having to go through the Rams, Cowboys and 49ers. Those are three of the highest-scoring teams in the NFL. 

Playoff projection: Sunday night’s matchup between Detroit and Los Angeles will be one of the more intriguing of Super Wild Card Weekend, since the trade that sent Goff to Detroit and former Lion Matthew Stafford to the Rams will be at the center of it. The Lions will win that game, but a rematch in Dallas in the Divisional Round won’t end well.

What to like: This team has a ton of big-game experience. It might not always feel that way because of the Buccaneers’ inconsistency, but it means a lot to have three straight NFC South titles and a Super Bowl win from three seasons ago. There also are a lot of positives on offense, even though the numbers aren’t gaudy. Offensive coordinator Dave Canales has helped quarterback Baker Mayfield enjoy an impressive bounce-back year. Wide receiver Mike Evans is playing some of his best football at age 30, as he produced his most receiving yards in a season since 2018. The Bucs struggled to score in their final two games — amassing just 22 total points in a loss to New Orleans and a win over Carolina — but this team still has won five of its last six. Momentum matters plenty in January. 

What not to like: Those last two games of the season didn’t inspire much faith. The loss to New Orleans was especially alarming because it would’ve clinched the division title in Week 17. The Bucs wound up floundering in all phases and creating a must-win situation against a two-win Carolina team. In the Bucs’ defense, Mayfield played through a rib injury sustained in that Saints loss. But those struggles still need to be noted.

Playoff projection: Normally, it wouldn’t be wise to place too much faith in an NFC South team in a season like this. That said, the Bucs are hosting the scuffling Eagles next Monday. Tampa will get the win and then fall to San Francisco in the Divisional Round.

What to like: It’s hard to remember right now, but this team did show great heart for a good portion of this season. The Eagles won 10 of their first 11 games. That had more to do with an ability to make winning plays in critical moments, with quarterback Jalen Hurts providing plenty of those on his own. There’s also still a lot of talent on this offense, with a veteran offensive line and dynamic skill players like running back D’Andre Swift, wide receiver DeVonta Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert. We’ll have to see about the status of star receiver A.J. Brown — who left Sunday’s loss to the Giants with a knee injury — but this bunch can still score points. In fact, that’s the only reason to still believe in the reigning NFC champions.

What not to like: This team is imploding right before our eyes. There’s no other way to explain Sunday’s blowout loss to the Giants just one week after the Arizona Cardinals upset the Eagles in Philadelphia. Let’s not forget, the Eagles entered their final three games of the season needing only to win out to claim their second consecutive NFC East title. They instead dropped two of three and looked abysmal doing so. The defense has been an ongoing issue, as the Eagles are giving up an average of 30 points per game over their last six contests, five of which have ended in defeat. Now they’re dealing with injuries to Brown and Hurts (who dislocated a finger) from a day when everything looked disastrous. It’s fair to say the Eagles are on fumes at this stage. 

Playoff projection: The Eagles aren’t going anywhere. They’ve been complaining about frustrations, playing horrible defense and inspiring no confidence that they can turn things around quickly. If they can’t beat the lowly Giants or Cardinals, they aren’t beating the Bucs next Monday night in Tampa.

What to like: The coaching job of Sean McVay. The Rams were supposed to be rebuilding. Instead, they wound up reminding us why McVay is one of the best coaches in the business. Puka Nacua was a lightly regarded fifth-round pick when the season began. He ended it as a record-setting Pro Bowler. Running back Kyren Williams has emerged as the best running back in the league not named Christian McCaffery. Let’s not forget quarterback Matthew Stafford, either. He’s played at an MVP level in the second half of the season, helping the Rams overcome a 3-6 start. This team could be a tough out with all the firepower it has on offense and McVay’s creativity.

What not to like: Pass defense hasn’t been a strength of the Rams lately. It’s one thing if it’s Lamar Jackson generating explosive plays against you, as was the case when the Ravens beat the Rams. But Washington’s Jacoby Brissett did some damage against this secondary and Derek Carr did the same thing. The Rams won both those games, but you must imagine Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and quarterback Jared Goff will be looking to exploit those issues in this upcoming wild-card game on Sunday night. 

Playoff projection: The Rams have been a fun story, but the Lions will handle them in the Wild Card Round.

What to like: Jordan Love’s maturation. It’s been quite the season for Green Bay’s quarterback, as he started with promise, then struggled with regression and finally found a groove at the end of the season that helped this team snag that final playoff spot. He’s made some big plays in the second half of the season — most notably, in a win over Kansas City — and his receiving corps is starting to get healthier at a key time. There are a lot of things the Packers wanted to see from Love in his first year as a full-time starter. Now they’ll get to see how he handles all the pressure that comes with the postseason.

What not to like: The Packers better hope they can trust their defense when the postseason begins. That unit became a problem late in the regular season, and it’s hard to know if that will change in the playoffs. Tommy DeVito led a game-winning drive against that bunch in a loss to the Giants. Six days later, Baker Mayfield lit Green Bay up for 381 yards and four touchdown passes in another Packers defeat. Even the wins haven’t been that encouraging. Bryce Young threw for 312 yards and two touchdowns and led Carolina to its only 30-point game of the season in a narrow Packers victory. Imagine what the Cowboys are thinking as they watch film this week.

Playoff projection: The Cowboys might drop 40 on Green Bay. This could be really ugly.

• Weeks in top five: 9

• Weeks in top five: 9

• Weeks in top five: 10

• Weeks in top five: 9

• Weeks in top five: 2